Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems from its acquisition of Russia’s S-400 air-defense system, which triggers statutory prohibitions under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses the system and will not acquire comparable Russian equipment. Diplomatic signals from the Trump administration in mid-2026, including comments at the July NATO summit in Ankara and approval of a $700 million GE F110 engine sale for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter, raised expectations of sanctions relief or a workaround such as third-party transfer of the S-400 batteries. However, those efforts stalled by late summer, with State Department statements confirming Turkey had not met legal conditions and reports of collapsed UAE transfer talks. Congressional resistance, concerns over technology security and regional balances involving Israel and Greece, and Turkey’s parallel pursuit of domestic fifth-generation capability continue to limit near-term reentry prospects despite bilateral engagement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$45,046 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre 2026
8%
30 giugno 2027
32%
$45,046 Vol.
31 dicembre 2026
$32,628 Vol.
8%
30 giugno 2027
$12,418 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems from its acquisition of Russia’s S-400 air-defense system, which triggers statutory prohibitions under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses the system and will not acquire comparable Russian equipment. Diplomatic signals from the Trump administration in mid-2026, including comments at the July NATO summit in Ankara and approval of a $700 million GE F110 engine sale for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter, raised expectations of sanctions relief or a workaround such as third-party transfer of the S-400 batteries. However, those efforts stalled by late summer, with State Department statements confirming Turkey had not met legal conditions and reports of collapsed UAE transfer talks. Congressional resistance, concerns over technology security and regional balances involving Israel and Greece, and Turkey’s parallel pursuit of domestic fifth-generation capability continue to limit near-term reentry prospects despite bilateral engagement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$45,046Data di fine
1 lug 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems from its acquisition of Russia’s S-400 air-defense system, which triggers statutory prohibitions under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses the system and will not acquire comparable Russian equipment. Diplomatic signals from the Trump administration in mid-2026, including comments at the July NATO summit in Ankara and approval of a $700 million GE F110 engine sale for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter, raised expectations of sanctions relief or a workaround such as third-party transfer of the S-400 batteries. However, those efforts stalled by late summer, with State Department statements confirming Turkey had not met legal conditions and reports of collapsed UAE transfer talks. Congressional resistance, concerns over technology security and regional balances involving Israel and Greece, and Turkey’s parallel pursuit of domestic fifth-generation capability continue to limit near-term reentry prospects despite bilateral engagement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$45,046Data di fine
1 lug 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems from its acquisition of Russia’s S-400 air-defense system, which triggers statutory prohibitions under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses the system and will not acquire comparable Russian equipment. Diplomatic signals from the Trump administration in mid-2026, including comments at the July NATO summit in Ankara and approval of a $700 million GE F110 engine sale for Turkey’s indigenous KAAN fighter, raised expectations of sanctions relief or a workaround such as third-party transfer of the S-400 batteries. However, those efforts stalled by late summer, with State Department statements confirming Turkey had not met legal conditions and reports of collapsed UAE transfer talks. Congressional resistance, concerns over technology security and regional balances involving Israel and Greece, and Turkey’s parallel pursuit of domestic fifth-generation capability continue to limit near-term reentry prospects despite bilateral engagement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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