President Trump signed Executive Order 14409 on June 2, 2026, establishing a voluntary 30-day government review window for certain frontier AI models focused on cybersecurity risks and national security protections while emphasizing innovation and avoiding burdensome rules. Recent statements from the president, including his September 19 announcement of an “AI Force” and AI czar, reinforce opposition to measures that could slow development, with explicit rejection of industry calls for stricter guardrails and insistence that existing criminal laws suffice. Ongoing U.S.-China competition and the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting with Chinese leaders may shape any further executive actions. Trader assessments of additional restrictive orders by late 2026 reflect this preference for acceleration over new constraints, alongside the administration’s record of scaling back earlier proposals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
30 set 2026
30 settembre
3%
31 ottobre
15%
31 dicembre
14%
$1,435 Vol.
30 settembre
$850 Vol.
3%
31 ottobre
$344 Vol.
15%
31 dicembre
$241 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump signed Executive Order 14409 on June 2, 2026, establishing a voluntary 30-day government review window for certain frontier AI models focused on cybersecurity risks and national security protections while emphasizing innovation and avoiding burdensome rules. Recent statements from the president, including his September 19 announcement of an “AI Force” and AI czar, reinforce opposition to measures that could slow development, with explicit rejection of industry calls for stricter guardrails and insistence that existing criminal laws suffice. Ongoing U.S.-China competition and the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting with Chinese leaders may shape any further executive actions. Trader assessments of additional restrictive orders by late 2026 reflect this preference for acceleration over new constraints, alongside the administration’s record of scaling back earlier proposals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Sep 17, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,435Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 2:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump signed Executive Order 14409 on June 2, 2026, establishing a voluntary 30-day government review window for certain frontier AI models focused on cybersecurity risks and national security protections while emphasizing innovation and avoiding burdensome rules. Recent statements from the president, including his September 19 announcement of an “AI Force” and AI czar, reinforce opposition to measures that could slow development, with explicit rejection of industry calls for stricter guardrails and insistence that existing criminal laws suffice. Ongoing U.S.-China competition and the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting with Chinese leaders may shape any further executive actions. Trader assessments of additional restrictive orders by late 2026 reflect this preference for acceleration over new constraints, alongside the administration’s record of scaling back earlier proposals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,435Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 2:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...President Trump signed Executive Order 14409 on June 2, 2026, establishing a voluntary 30-day government review window for certain frontier AI models focused on cybersecurity risks and national security protections while emphasizing innovation and avoiding burdensome rules. Recent statements from the president, including his September 19 announcement of an “AI Force” and AI czar, reinforce opposition to measures that could slow development, with explicit rejection of industry calls for stricter guardrails and insistence that existing criminal laws suffice. Ongoing U.S.-China competition and the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting with Chinese leaders may shape any further executive actions. Trader assessments of additional restrictive orders by late 2026 reflect this preference for acceleration over new constraints, alongside the administration’s record of scaling back earlier proposals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il governo degli Stati Uniti vieta un modello di intelligenza artificiale open source nel 2026?
8%
Sì
Il governo degli Stati Uniti rimuove l'accesso pubblico a un altro modello di intelligenza artificiale di Anthropic nel 2026?
12%
Sì
Gli Stati Uniti approvano una legge sulla sicurezza dell'IA prima del 2027?
11%
Sì
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