Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a U.S. AI safety bill before 2027, driven by congressional gridlock in the 119th Congress amid partisan divides over regulation scope. The Trump administration's March 2026 National Policy Framework urged light-touch federal AI rules with state preemption, but Democrats criticized it as insufficiently protective, stalling progress on bills like the AI Accountability Act and bipartisan measures such as the CREATE AI Act. No major legislation has advanced beyond committees, with states like Florida reviving AI measures independently. Upcoming midterms and lame-duck session risks further diminish passage prospects despite White House pressure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$87,195 Vol.
$87,195 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$87,195 Vol.
$87,195 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a U.S. AI safety bill before 2027, driven by congressional gridlock in the 119th Congress amid partisan divides over regulation scope. The Trump administration's March 2026 National Policy Framework urged light-touch federal AI rules with state preemption, but Democrats criticized it as insufficiently protective, stalling progress on bills like the AI Accountability Act and bipartisan measures such as the CREATE AI Act. No major legislation has advanced beyond committees, with states like Florida reviving AI measures independently. Upcoming midterms and lame-duck session risks further diminish passage prospects despite White House pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$87,195Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a U.S. AI safety bill before 2027, driven by congressional gridlock in the 119th Congress amid partisan divides over regulation scope. The Trump administration's March 2026 National Policy Framework urged light-touch federal AI rules with state preemption, but Democrats criticized it as insufficiently protective, stalling progress on bills like the AI Accountability Act and bipartisan measures such as the CREATE AI Act. No major legislation has advanced beyond committees, with states like Florida reviving AI measures independently. Upcoming midterms and lame-duck session risks further diminish passage prospects despite White House pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$87,195Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a U.S. AI safety bill before 2027, driven by congressional gridlock in the 119th Congress amid partisan divides over regulation scope. The Trump administration's March 2026 National Policy Framework urged light-touch federal AI rules with state preemption, but Democrats criticized it as insufficiently protective, stalling progress on bills like the AI Accountability Act and bipartisan measures such as the CREATE AI Act. No major legislation has advanced beyond committees, with states like Florida reviving AI measures independently. Upcoming midterms and lame-duck session risks further diminish passage prospects despite White House pressure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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