Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Claude 4.7 releasing on or before April 16, driven by fresh reporting from The Information and codebase leaks revealing Opus 4.7 references alongside new tools like an AI design app, positioning it as imminent this week. Recent Claude Code desktop app redesigns—adding side-by-side sessions, voice commands, and skill management—mirror Anthropic's pattern of tooling upgrades preceding model drops, as seen with prior Claude 4.x launches. Backend 500 errors today further fuel speculation of active rollout. While strong skin-in-the-game sentiment backs this, technical glitches, final safety evaluations, or competitive delays from rivals like OpenAI's GPT updates could push it past today, though historical velocity suggests resolution soon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoClaude 4.7 rilasciato il...?
Claude 4.7 rilasciato il...?
Entro il 16 aprile 92%
17 aprile 5.5%
21 aprile 1.6%
Non rilasciato entro il 30 aprile 1.0%
$94,950 Vol.
$94,950 Vol.
Entro il 16 aprile
92%
17 aprile
6%
18 aprile
1%
19 aprile
<1%
20 aprile
<1%
21 aprile
2%
22 aprile
<1%
23 aprile
1%
24 aprile
1%
25 aprile
1%
26 aprile
<1%
27 aprile
1%
28 aprile
<1%
29 aprile
<1%
30 aprile
<1%
Non rilasciato entro il 30 aprile
1%
Entro il 16 aprile 92%
17 aprile 5.5%
21 aprile 1.6%
Non rilasciato entro il 30 aprile 1.0%
$94,950 Vol.
$94,950 Vol.
Entro il 16 aprile
92%
17 aprile
6%
18 aprile
1%
19 aprile
<1%
20 aprile
<1%
21 aprile
2%
22 aprile
<1%
23 aprile
1%
24 aprile
1%
25 aprile
1%
26 aprile
<1%
27 aprile
1%
28 aprile
<1%
29 aprile
<1%
30 aprile
<1%
Non rilasciato entro il 30 aprile
1%
Claude 4.7 refers to a product explicitly named Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.7, or a variant that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4.6, similar to the progression from Claude 4.2 to Claude 4.3. (e.g., Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, 4.9, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar will count for this market.
Products labeled as a new flagship generation such as Claude 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Apr 15, 2026, 10:11 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude 4.7 refers to a product explicitly named Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.7, or a variant that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4.6, similar to the progression from Claude 4.2 to Claude 4.3. (e.g., Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, 4.9, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar will count for this market.
Products labeled as a new flagship generation such as Claude 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Claude 4.7 releasing on or before April 16, driven by fresh reporting from The Information and codebase leaks revealing Opus 4.7 references alongside new tools like an AI design app, positioning it as imminent this week. Recent Claude Code desktop app redesigns—adding side-by-side sessions, voice commands, and skill management—mirror Anthropic's pattern of tooling upgrades preceding model drops, as seen with prior Claude 4.x launches. Backend 500 errors today further fuel speculation of active rollout. While strong skin-in-the-game sentiment backs this, technical glitches, final safety evaluations, or competitive delays from rivals like OpenAI's GPT updates could push it past today, though historical velocity suggests resolution soon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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