Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #1 spot on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant performance since its early April release. The model tops Elo rankings at around 1502 points and crushes benchmarks like SWE-Bench Pro at 77.8%—20 points ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.4—excelling in coding, reasoning, and styled responses that align with the leaderboard's default settings. This reflects Anthropic's scaling gains from 5x pretraining FLOPs over prior versions, outpacing rivals amid a quiet week for competitors. Realistic challenges include surprise launches from OpenAI, Google Gemini 3.1, or xAI Grok before month-end, though tight timelines limit upset potential.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il modello di intelligenza artificiale numero1 alla fine di aprile? (Controllo stile attivato)
Quale azienda ha il modello di intelligenza artificiale numero1 alla fine di aprile? (Controllo stile attivato)
Anthropic 93%
OpenAI 3.6%
Google 1.1%
xAI 1.0%
$1,141,606 Vol.
$1,141,606 Vol.

Anthropic
93%

OpenAI
4%

1%

xAI
1%

Meta
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 93%
OpenAI 3.6%
Google 1.1%
xAI 1.0%
$1,141,606 Vol.
$1,141,606 Vol.

Anthropic
93%

OpenAI
4%

1%

xAI
1%

Meta
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #1 spot on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant performance since its early April release. The model tops Elo rankings at around 1502 points and crushes benchmarks like SWE-Bench Pro at 77.8%—20 points ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.4—excelling in coding, reasoning, and styled responses that align with the leaderboard's default settings. This reflects Anthropic's scaling gains from 5x pretraining FLOPs over prior versions, outpacing rivals amid a quiet week for competitors. Realistic challenges include surprise launches from OpenAI, Google Gemini 3.1, or xAI Grok before month-end, though tight timelines limit upset potential.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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