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Tecnologia·Big Tech

Il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 17 aprile? (Controllo stile attivato)

Market icon
Tecnologia·Big Tech

Il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 17 aprile? (Controllo stile attivato)

apr 17

apr 17

claude-opus-4-6-thinking 93.5%

gemini-3.1-pro-preview 1.9%

muse-spark 1.1%

gpt-5.4-high <1%

Polymarket

$51,775 Vol.

claude-opus-4-6-thinking 93.5%

gemini-3.1-pro-preview 1.9%

muse-spark 1.1%

gpt-5.4-high <1%

Polymarket

$51,775 Vol.

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$36,281 Vol.

94%

gemini-3.1-pro-preview

$278 Vol.

2%

muse-spark

$3,234 Vol.

1%

gpt-5.4-high

$1,041 Vol.

1%

claude-opus-4-6

$5,714 Vol.

<1%

qwen3.5-max-preview

$279 Vol.

<1%

claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k

$500 Vol.

<1%

gemini-2.5-pro

$252 Vol.

<1%

dola-seed-2.0-preview

$529 Vol.

<1%

gemini-3-pro

$435 Vol.

<1%

grok-4.20-beta1

$1,026 Vol.

<1%

grok-4.20-beta-0309-reasoning

$684 Vol.

<1%

gemini-3-flash

$198 Vol.

<1%

kimi-k2.5-thinking

$419 Vol.

<1%

gpt-5.2-chat-latest-20260210

$904 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking commands a 93.5% market-implied probability as the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard under Style Control On as of April 17, 2026, leading with Elo scores of 1502 in text, 1548 in code, and strong showings in vision and document tasks. Released February 5, this large language model's enhanced "thinking" mode excels in complex reasoning, agentic workflows, and human-preference battles, surging to #1 around April 11 after overtaking GPT-5.4-high and Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview. Recent arena updates two days ago solidified its edge amid competitive multimodal advances from Meta's Muse Spark. While trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game conviction, realistic challenges include overnight leaderboard volatility from new battles, sudden rival updates like potential Opus 4.7 integration, or reported performance tweaks eroding its lead before snapshot.

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$51,775
Data di fine
17 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 9, 2026, 5:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking commands a 93.5% market-implied probability as the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard under Style Control On as of April 17, 2026, leading with Elo scores of 1502 in text, 1548 in code, and strong showings in vision and document tasks. Released February 5, this large language model's enhanced "thinking" mode excels in complex reasoning, agentic workflows, and human-preference battles, surging to #1 around April 11 after overtaking GPT-5.4-high and Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview. Recent arena updates two days ago solidified its edge amid competitive multimodal advances from Meta's Muse Spark. While trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game conviction, realistic challenges include overnight leaderboard volatility from new battles, sudden rival updates like potential Opus 4.7 integration, or reported performance tweaks eroding its lead before snapshot.

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$51,775
Data di fine
17 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 9, 2026, 5:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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Domande frequenti

"Il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 17 aprile? (Controllo stile attivato)" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 15 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "claude-opus-4-6-thinking" a 94%, seguito da "gemini-3.1-pro-preview" a 2%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 94¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 94% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 17 aprile? (Controllo stile attivato)" ha generato $51.8K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 9, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 17 aprile? (Controllo stile attivato)", esplora i 15 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 17 aprile? (Controllo stile attivato)" è "claude-opus-4-6-thinking" a 94%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 94% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "gemini-3.1-pro-preview" a 2%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 17 aprile? (Controllo stile attivato)" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.