Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 93.5% implied probability for possessing the best AI model by end of April 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 topping key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and coding evaluations such as SWE-bench, where it edges out OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by meaningful margins amid double-digit gains reported in recent previews of Claude Mythos. Stanford's 2026 AI Index underscores this narrow but consistent lead across frontier models, with no major releases from competitors in the past week to challenge it. This positioning reflects aggregated skin-in-the-game bets on sustained superiority through April 30 resolution, potentially based on leaderboard snapshots. Realistic challengers include surprise late-month drops like GPT-5.5 or Gemini updates, benchmark methodology shifts, or leaked capabilities flipping rankings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di aprile?
Quale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di aprile?
Anthropic 94%
OpenAI 3.8%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$8,513,519 Vol.
$8,513,519 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Anthropic
94%
OpenAI
4%
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
xAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 94%
OpenAI 3.8%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$8,513,519 Vol.
$8,513,519 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Anthropic
$412,634 Vol.
94%
OpenAI
$913,690 Vol.
4%
$327,061 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$2,001,556 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$429,449 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$95,378 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$543,860 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$706,463 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$411,986 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$502,655 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$532,584 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$607,878 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$517,632 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$428,705 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$84,258 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 93.5% implied probability for possessing the best AI model by end of April 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 topping key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and coding evaluations such as SWE-bench, where it edges out OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by meaningful margins amid double-digit gains reported in recent previews of Claude Mythos. Stanford's 2026 AI Index underscores this narrow but consistent lead across frontier models, with no major releases from competitors in the past week to challenge it. This positioning reflects aggregated skin-in-the-game bets on sustained superiority through April 30 resolution, potentially based on leaderboard snapshots. Realistic challengers include surprise late-month drops like GPT-5.5 or Gemini updates, benchmark methodology shifts, or leaked capabilities flipping rankings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$8,513,519Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 93.5% implied probability for possessing the best AI model by end of April 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 topping key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and coding evaluations such as SWE-bench, where it edges out OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by meaningful margins amid double-digit gains reported in recent previews of Claude Mythos. Stanford's 2026 AI Index underscores this narrow but consistent lead across frontier models, with no major releases from competitors in the past week to challenge it. This positioning reflects aggregated skin-in-the-game bets on sustained superiority through April 30 resolution, potentially based on leaderboard snapshots. Realistic challengers include surprise late-month drops like GPT-5.5 or Gemini updates, benchmark methodology shifts, or leaked capabilities flipping rankings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$8,513,519Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 93.5% implied probability for possessing the best AI model by end of April 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 topping key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and coding evaluations such as SWE-bench, where it edges out OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by meaningful margins amid double-digit gains reported in recent previews of Claude Mythos. Stanford's 2026 AI Index underscores this narrow but consistent lead across frontier models, with no major releases from competitors in the past week to challenge it. This positioning reflects aggregated skin-in-the-game bets on sustained superiority through April 30 resolution, potentially based on leaderboard snapshots. Realistic challengers include surprise late-month drops like GPT-5.5 or Gemini updates, benchmark methodology shifts, or leaked capabilities flipping rankings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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