Anthropic commands a 65% implied probability on Polymarket as traders anticipate Claude Opus 4.6—currently topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a 1,998 Elo score—will retain frontier status through June 30, bolstered by dominance in coding, agentic tasks, and the new Image-to-WebDev benchmark per Arena.ai's April 15 update. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 19% with a strong 1,941 Elo in reasoning but lags in execution metrics, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 sits at 8% amid weaker recent showings. April releases like Anthropic's Claude 4.6 variants and Z.ai's competitive GLM-5.1 have solidified this hierarchy, though upcoming model drops from xAI's Grok-4 or regulatory hurdles could shift dynamics before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il miglior modello di IA alla fine di giugno?
Quale azienda ha il miglior modello di IA alla fine di giugno?
Anthropic 65.0%
Google 19%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 3.9%
$3,443,275 Vol.
$3,443,275 Vol.

Anthropic
65%

19%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
4%

Meta
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Amazon
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 65.0%
Google 19%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 3.9%
$3,443,275 Vol.
$3,443,275 Vol.

Anthropic
65%

19%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
4%

Meta
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Amazon
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

ByteDance
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic commands a 65% implied probability on Polymarket as traders anticipate Claude Opus 4.6—currently topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a 1,998 Elo score—will retain frontier status through June 30, bolstered by dominance in coding, agentic tasks, and the new Image-to-WebDev benchmark per Arena.ai's April 15 update. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 19% with a strong 1,941 Elo in reasoning but lags in execution metrics, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 sits at 8% amid weaker recent showings. April releases like Anthropic's Claude 4.6 variants and Z.ai's competitive GLM-5.1 have solidified this hierarchy, though upcoming model drops from xAI's Grok-4 or regulatory hurdles could shift dynamics before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
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