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Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

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Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

59% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
59% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price). The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for Anthropic surpassing OpenAI's valuation at some point in 2026, reflecting a razor-thin balance driven by Anthropic's explosive revenue acceleration to a $30 billion annualized run-rate—eclipsing OpenAI's $25 billion—amid superior per-user monetization and cost efficiency. Private secondary market trades recently flipped valuations, marking Anthropic at $863 billion versus OpenAI's $846 billion, despite OpenAI's March $852 billion post-money funding benchmark facing investor scrutiny over its enterprise pivot. Anthropic's February $380 billion round now attracts preemptive $800 billion-plus offers, underscoring growth momentum. Key swing factors include Anthropic's potential next funding close, IPO timelines for both, and Q2 revenue disclosures that could solidify or reverse the momentum.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).

The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$73
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price). The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price). The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for Anthropic surpassing OpenAI's valuation at some point in 2026, reflecting a razor-thin balance driven by Anthropic's explosive revenue acceleration to a $30 billion annualized run-rate—eclipsing OpenAI's $25 billion—amid superior per-user monetization and cost efficiency. Private secondary market trades recently flipped valuations, marking Anthropic at $863 billion versus OpenAI's $846 billion, despite OpenAI's March $852 billion post-money funding benchmark facing investor scrutiny over its enterprise pivot. Anthropic's February $380 billion round now attracts preemptive $800 billion-plus offers, underscoring growth momentum. Key swing factors include Anthropic's potential next funding close, IPO timelines for both, and Q2 revenue disclosures that could solidify or reverse the momentum.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).

The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$73
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price). The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 53% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 53¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 53% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Apr 14, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?" è 53% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 53% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.