Traders view the race for the best AI model by July 4 as highly competitive, with claude-opus-4-6-thinking holding only a narrow edge at 51% implied probability over several close alternatives. Recent releases of Anthropic's Claude variants have delivered incremental gains in reasoning benchmarks and large language model capabilities, particularly in chain-of-thought processing for the "thinking" editions and refined output quality in fable-5. This has kept market-implied odds clustered near 50%, as participants weigh these strengths against potential undisclosed updates from rival labs. Key swing factors include any final benchmark disclosures or capability demonstrations before the resolution date, underscoring how small technical edges can rapidly alter trader consensus in fast-moving AI development.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoBest AI model on July 4?
Best AI model on July 4?
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 99.2%
claude-fable-5 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$44,777 Vol.
$44,777 Vol.
4 lug 2026
claude-fable-5
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
No
claude-opus-4-6
No
Other
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Yes
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 99.2%
claude-fable-5 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$44,777 Vol.
$44,777 Vol.
4 lug 2026
claude-fable-5
$14,604 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$3,924 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-6
$3,255 Vol.
No
Other
$7,389 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$15,605 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders view the race for the best AI model by July 4 as highly competitive, with claude-opus-4-6-thinking holding only a narrow edge at 51% implied probability over several close alternatives. Recent releases of Anthropic's Claude variants have delivered incremental gains in reasoning benchmarks and large language model capabilities, particularly in chain-of-thought processing for the "thinking" editions and refined output quality in fable-5. This has kept market-implied odds clustered near 50%, as participants weigh these strengths against potential undisclosed updates from rival labs. Key swing factors include any final benchmark disclosures or capability demonstrations before the resolution date, underscoring how small technical edges can rapidly alter trader consensus in fast-moving AI development.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Jun 26, 2026, 12:49 PM ET
Volume
$44,777Data di fine
4 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 26, 2026, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders view the race for the best AI model by July 4 as highly competitive, with claude-opus-4-6-thinking holding only a narrow edge at 51% implied probability over several close alternatives. Recent releases of Anthropic's Claude variants have delivered incremental gains in reasoning benchmarks and large language model capabilities, particularly in chain-of-thought processing for the "thinking" editions and refined output quality in fable-5. This has kept market-implied odds clustered near 50%, as participants weigh these strengths against potential undisclosed updates from rival labs. Key swing factors include any final benchmark disclosures or capability demonstrations before the resolution date, underscoring how small technical edges can rapidly alter trader consensus in fast-moving AI development.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$44,777Data di fine
4 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 26, 2026, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
Traders view the race for the best AI model by July 4 as highly competitive, with claude-opus-4-6-thinking holding only a narrow edge at 51% implied probability over several close alternatives. Recent releases of Anthropic's Claude variants have delivered incremental gains in reasoning benchmarks and large language model capabilities, particularly in chain-of-thought processing for the "thinking" editions and refined output quality in fable-5. This has kept market-implied odds clustered near 50%, as participants weigh these strengths against potential undisclosed updates from rival labs. Key swing factors include any final benchmark disclosures or capability demonstrations before the resolution date, underscoring how small technical edges can rapidly alter trader consensus in fast-moving AI development.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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