Anthropic’s recent Opus release cadence and credible leaks around a codenamed “claude-opus-5-5” model drove overwhelming trader consensus toward an imminent launch, with market-implied odds heavily concentrated on September 22. Opus 5 arrived July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May, reflecting an accelerated eight-to-ten-week cycle amid competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.x variants and Google’s Gemini updates; the new 5.5 version delivers Fable 5.1-level performance on most tasks at 20-40% lower cost, plus improved safety scores and faster output. CEO Dario Amodei’s public call for pacing frontier capabilities added context for a measured but still rapid upgrade rather than a full generational leap. Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 are slated for the coming weeks, while any slippage in production rollout or API availability could shift remaining probability mass to September 23-24.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl prossimo Claude Opus pubblicato da...?
Il prossimo Claude Opus pubblicato da...?
NUOVO
30 nov 2026
30 novembre
41%
31 dicembre
52%
$45 Vol.
30 novembre
$45 Vol.
41%
31 dicembre
$0 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.6, Claude Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5.5, released on September 22, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, re-release, reasoning or speed mode, or other variant of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s recent Opus release cadence and credible leaks around a codenamed “claude-opus-5-5” model drove overwhelming trader consensus toward an imminent launch, with market-implied odds heavily concentrated on September 22. Opus 5 arrived July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May, reflecting an accelerated eight-to-ten-week cycle amid competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.x variants and Google’s Gemini updates; the new 5.5 version delivers Fable 5.1-level performance on most tasks at 20-40% lower cost, plus improved safety scores and faster output. CEO Dario Amodei’s public call for pacing frontier capabilities added context for a measured but still rapid upgrade rather than a full generational leap. Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 are slated for the coming weeks, while any slippage in production rollout or API availability could shift remaining probability mass to September 23-24.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.6, Claude Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5.5, released on September 22, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, re-release, reasoning or speed mode, or other variant of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.6, Claude Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5.5, released on September 22, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, re-release, reasoning or speed mode, or other variant of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Sep 23, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volume
$45Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 23, 2026, 7:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.6, Claude Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5.5, released on September 22, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, re-release, reasoning or speed mode, or other variant of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s recent Opus release cadence and credible leaks around a codenamed “claude-opus-5-5” model drove overwhelming trader consensus toward an imminent launch, with market-implied odds heavily concentrated on September 22. Opus 5 arrived July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May, reflecting an accelerated eight-to-ten-week cycle amid competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.x variants and Google’s Gemini updates; the new 5.5 version delivers Fable 5.1-level performance on most tasks at 20-40% lower cost, plus improved safety scores and faster output. CEO Dario Amodei’s public call for pacing frontier capabilities added context for a measured but still rapid upgrade rather than a full generational leap. Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 are slated for the coming weeks, while any slippage in production rollout or API availability could shift remaining probability mass to September 23-24.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.6, Claude Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5.5, released on September 22, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, re-release, reasoning or speed mode, or other variant of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.6, Claude Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5.5, released on September 22, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, re-release, reasoning or speed mode, or other variant of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$45Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 23, 2026, 7:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070be91...Anthropic’s recent Opus release cadence and credible leaks around a codenamed “claude-opus-5-5” model drove overwhelming trader consensus toward an imminent launch, with market-implied odds heavily concentrated on September 22. Opus 5 arrived July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May, reflecting an accelerated eight-to-ten-week cycle amid competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.x variants and Google’s Gemini updates; the new 5.5 version delivers Fable 5.1-level performance on most tasks at 20-40% lower cost, plus improved safety scores and faster output. CEO Dario Amodei’s public call for pacing frontier capabilities added context for a measured but still rapid upgrade rather than a full generational leap. Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 are slated for the coming weeks, while any slippage in production rollout or API availability could shift remaining probability mass to September 23-24.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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