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icon for Prossimo modello Muse Spark (1.4+) rilasciato il...?
Tecnologia·AI

Prossimo modello Muse Spark (1.4+) rilasciato il...?

icon for Prossimo modello Muse Spark (1.4+) rilasciato il...?
Tecnologia·AI

Prossimo modello Muse Spark (1.4+) rilasciato il...?

5 ottobre 25%

8 ottobre 25%

25 ottobre 25%

28 ottobre 25%

Polymarket
NUOVO

5 ottobre 25%

8 ottobre 25%

25 ottobre 25%

28 ottobre 25%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Entro o prima del 1 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

2 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

3 ottobre

$0 Vol.

16%

4 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

5 ottobre

$0 Vol.

25%

6 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

7 ottobre

$0 Vol.

15%

8 ottobre

$0 Vol.

25%

9 ottobre

$5 Vol.

14%

10 ottobre

$0 Vol.

15%

11 ottobre

$0 Vol.

15%

12 ottobre

$0 Vol.

16%

13 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

14 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

15 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

16 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

17 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

18 ottobre

$0 Vol.

8%

19 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

20 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

21 ottobre

$0 Vol.

13%

22 ottobre

$0 Vol.

18%

23 ottobre

$0 Vol.

7%

24 ottobre

$0 Vol.

18%

25 ottobre

$0 Vol.

25%

26 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

27 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

28 ottobre

$0 Vol.

25%

29 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

30 ottobre

$0 Vol.

18%

31 ottobre

$0 Vol.

14%

Nessun rilascio entro il 31 ottobre

$0 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series, with 1.3 shipping September 2 after 1.2 in early August, drives trader focus on an early-October 1.4 release amid ongoing gains in agentic workflows, coding efficiency, and multi-agent orchestration. The even spread of probabilities across early and mid-October dates reflects limited public signals on internal timelines, typical Meta release cadence, and competitive positioning against frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Traders weigh factors like API availability, benchmark improvements, and any Meta Superintelligence Labs announcements or executive comments, with the October 31 "no release" option capturing downside risk from delays common in large-model development. Upcoming developer conferences or earnings commentary could shift sentiment quickly.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5
Data di fine
31 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series, with 1.3 shipping September 2 after 1.2 in early August, drives trader focus on an early-October 1.4 release amid ongoing gains in agentic workflows, coding efficiency, and multi-agent orchestration. The even spread of probabilities across early and mid-October dates reflects limited public signals on internal timelines, typical Meta release cadence, and competitive positioning against frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Traders weigh factors like API availability, benchmark improvements, and any Meta Superintelligence Labs announcements or executive comments, with the October 31 "no release" option capturing downside risk from delays common in large-model development. Upcoming developer conferences or earnings commentary could shift sentiment quickly.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5
Data di fine
31 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

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"Prossimo modello Muse Spark (1.4+) rilasciato il...?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 32 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "5 ottobre" a 25%, seguito da "8 ottobre" a 25%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 25¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 25% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Prossimo modello Muse Spark (1.4+) rilasciato il...?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Sep 22, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Prossimo modello Muse Spark (1.4+) rilasciato il...?", esplora i 32 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Prossimo modello Muse Spark (1.4+) rilasciato il...?" è "5 ottobre" a 25%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 25% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "8 ottobre" a 25%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Prossimo modello Muse Spark (1.4+) rilasciato il...?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.