Google's repeated delays to the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch, then slipped to July amid internal benchmarking shortfalls and extended partner testing—drive the market's concentration on late-October dates, with October 27 commanding 43% implied probability. Frequent Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the September 2 release of 3.8 Flash and September 15 audio models, signal ongoing iteration on lighter models while the Pro tier remains in limited previews without a firm public rollout. Traders weigh Google's historical cadence for major Pro updates, ongoing Gemini 4 pre-training, and absence of recent changelog or earnings signals as factors favoring a narrow October window over earlier or post-October 31 outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoProssimo modello Gemini Pro rilasciato il...?
Prossimo modello Gemini Pro rilasciato il...?
16 ottobre 49%
19 ottobre 49%
20 ottobre 49%
24 ottobre 49%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 ott 2026
Il 1 ottobre o prima
12%
2 ottobre
1%
3 ottobre
5%
4 ottobre
5%
5 ottobre
1%
6 ottobre
8%
7 ottobre
14%
8 ottobre
13%
9 ottobre
1%
10 ottobre
12%
11 ottobre
5%
12 ottobre
9%
13 ottobre
14%
14 ottobre
5%
15 ottobre
7%
16 ottobre
49%
17 ottobre
7%
18 ottobre
25%
19 ottobre
49%
20 ottobre
49%
21 ottobre
38%
22 ottobre
7%
23 ottobre
10%
24 ottobre
49%
25 ottobre
12%
26 ottobre
6%
27 ottobre
44%
28 ottobre
13%
29 ottobre
13%
30 ottobre
6%
31 ottobre
6%
Nessun rilascio entro il 31 ottobre
26%
16 ottobre 49%
19 ottobre 49%
20 ottobre 49%
24 ottobre 49%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 ott 2026
Il 1 ottobre o prima
$58 Vol.
12%
2 ottobre
$39 Vol.
1%
3 ottobre
$50 Vol.
5%
4 ottobre
$50 Vol.
5%
5 ottobre
$39 Vol.
1%
6 ottobre
$50 Vol.
8%
7 ottobre
$50 Vol.
14%
8 ottobre
$50 Vol.
13%
9 ottobre
$39 Vol.
1%
10 ottobre
$50 Vol.
12%
11 ottobre
$50 Vol.
5%
12 ottobre
$50 Vol.
9%
13 ottobre
$50 Vol.
14%
14 ottobre
$50 Vol.
5%
15 ottobre
$50 Vol.
7%
16 ottobre
$42 Vol.
49%
17 ottobre
$50 Vol.
7%
18 ottobre
$42 Vol.
25%
19 ottobre
$42 Vol.
49%
20 ottobre
$42 Vol.
49%
21 ottobre
$53 Vol.
38%
22 ottobre
$50 Vol.
7%
23 ottobre
$50 Vol.
10%
24 ottobre
$42 Vol.
49%
25 ottobre
$50 Vol.
12%
26 ottobre
$50 Vol.
6%
27 ottobre
$42 Vol.
44%
28 ottobre
$50 Vol.
13%
29 ottobre
$50 Vol.
13%
30 ottobre
$50 Vol.
6%
31 ottobre
$50 Vol.
6%
Nessun rilascio entro il 31 ottobre
$55 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays to the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch, then slipped to July amid internal benchmarking shortfalls and extended partner testing—drive the market's concentration on late-October dates, with October 27 commanding 43% implied probability. Frequent Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the September 2 release of 3.8 Flash and September 15 audio models, signal ongoing iteration on lighter models while the Pro tier remains in limited previews without a firm public rollout. Traders weigh Google's historical cadence for major Pro updates, ongoing Gemini 4 pre-training, and absence of recent changelog or earnings signals as factors favoring a narrow October window over earlier or post-October 31 outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Sep 22, 2026, 4:14 PM ET
Volume
$1,537Data di fine
31 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2026, 4:14 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays to the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch, then slipped to July amid internal benchmarking shortfalls and extended partner testing—drive the market's concentration on late-October dates, with October 27 commanding 43% implied probability. Frequent Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the September 2 release of 3.8 Flash and September 15 audio models, signal ongoing iteration on lighter models while the Pro tier remains in limited previews without a firm public rollout. Traders weigh Google's historical cadence for major Pro updates, ongoing Gemini 4 pre-training, and absence of recent changelog or earnings signals as factors favoring a narrow October window over earlier or post-October 31 outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,537Data di fine
31 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2026, 4:14 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Google's repeated delays to the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch, then slipped to July amid internal benchmarking shortfalls and extended partner testing—drive the market's concentration on late-October dates, with October 27 commanding 43% implied probability. Frequent Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the September 2 release of 3.8 Flash and September 15 audio models, signal ongoing iteration on lighter models while the Pro tier remains in limited previews without a firm public rollout. Traders weigh Google's historical cadence for major Pro updates, ongoing Gemini 4 pre-training, and absence of recent changelog or earnings signals as factors favoring a narrow October window over earlier or post-October 31 outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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