Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model by April's end, driven by the dominance of its Claude Opus 4.6 flagship—atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo near 1500—paired with strong secondary models like Claude Sonnet 4.6 challenging for podium spots. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (24.5% odds) trails closely in second overall after its early April multimodal release boosted reasoning benchmarks, creating a tight top-two lockout that sidelines OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (3.5%), which has slipped amid no fresh updates. Recent Anthropic agentic enhancements and Google's Flash-Lite variant have solidified this positioning, though last-minute model drops could shift rankings before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il terzo miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di aprile?
Quale azienda ha il terzo miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di aprile?
Anthropic 69%
Google 25%
OpenAI 3.6%
Meta 3.1%
$350,041 Vol.
$350,041 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Anthropic
69%
25%
OpenAI
4%
Meta
3%
DeepSeek
1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 69%
Google 25%
OpenAI 3.6%
Meta 3.1%
$350,041 Vol.
$350,041 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Anthropic
$50,732 Vol.
69%
$40,152 Vol.
25%
OpenAI
$19,314 Vol.
4%
Meta
$7,366 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$43,020 Vol.
1%
xAI
$37,878 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$11,009 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$19,552 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$12,137 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$14,352 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$27,764 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$26,379 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$26,346 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,428 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$12,613 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model by April's end, driven by the dominance of its Claude Opus 4.6 flagship—atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo near 1500—paired with strong secondary models like Claude Sonnet 4.6 challenging for podium spots. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (24.5% odds) trails closely in second overall after its early April multimodal release boosted reasoning benchmarks, creating a tight top-two lockout that sidelines OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (3.5%), which has slipped amid no fresh updates. Recent Anthropic agentic enhancements and Google's Flash-Lite variant have solidified this positioning, though last-minute model drops could shift rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Volume
$350,041Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model by April's end, driven by the dominance of its Claude Opus 4.6 flagship—atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo near 1500—paired with strong secondary models like Claude Sonnet 4.6 challenging for podium spots. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (24.5% odds) trails closely in second overall after its early April multimodal release boosted reasoning benchmarks, creating a tight top-two lockout that sidelines OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (3.5%), which has slipped amid no fresh updates. Recent Anthropic agentic enhancements and Google's Flash-Lite variant have solidified this positioning, though last-minute model drops could shift rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$350,041Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model by April's end, driven by the dominance of its Claude Opus 4.6 flagship—atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo near 1500—paired with strong secondary models like Claude Sonnet 4.6 challenging for podium spots. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (24.5% odds) trails closely in second overall after its early April multimodal release boosted reasoning benchmarks, creating a tight top-two lockout that sidelines OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (3.5%), which has slipped amid no fresh updates. Recent Anthropic agentic enhancements and Google's Flash-Lite variant have solidified this positioning, though last-minute model drops could shift rankings before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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