Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard—a crowdsourced benchmark using blind Elo-rated battles. This stems from Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 holding the #2 spot at 1496 Elo, directly behind its own Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking variant at #1 (1502 Elo), solidified by the thinking model's recent debut in early April that enhanced reasoning and coding capabilities without displacing the base version. Meta's new Muse Spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, preliminary), while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview sits at #4 (1493), but unverified scores and tight release windows limit upset potential. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at #7 (1481), reflecting stalled momentum; watch for late-month frontier model drops from major labs that could reorder the top ranks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il secondo miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di aprile?
Quale azienda ha il secondo miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di aprile?
Anthropic 90%
OpenAI 5.5%
Google 3.3%
DeepSeek <1%
$65,664 Vol.
$65,664 Vol.

Anthropic
90%

OpenAI
6%

3%

DeepSeek
1%

xAI
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meta
<1%
Anthropic 90%
OpenAI 5.5%
Google 3.3%
DeepSeek <1%
$65,664 Vol.
$65,664 Vol.

Anthropic
90%

OpenAI
6%

3%

DeepSeek
1%

xAI
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meta
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard—a crowdsourced benchmark using blind Elo-rated battles. This stems from Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 holding the #2 spot at 1496 Elo, directly behind its own Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking variant at #1 (1502 Elo), solidified by the thinking model's recent debut in early April that enhanced reasoning and coding capabilities without displacing the base version. Meta's new Muse Spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, preliminary), while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview sits at #4 (1493), but unverified scores and tight release windows limit upset potential. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at #7 (1481), reflecting stalled momentum; watch for late-month frontier model drops from major labs that could reorder the top ranks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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