Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic with a 45.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—topping Elo scores near 1500 in coding and agentic tasks after its February 2026 launch, edging out OpenAI's GPT-5.4. Google's 27% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's competitive multimodal strengths and efficiency on Pareto frontiers, bolstered by ongoing updates like Gemma 4. Lower odds for OpenAI (8.6%) and DeepSeek (7.8%) stem from expectations of OpenAI retaining the top spot amid rapid iteration, while Chinese models like Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 excel in open-source rankings but trail closed frontier capabilities. Key catalysts include potential pre-June releases from leading labs, with benchmarks like LMSYS human evaluations driving sentiment shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il secondo miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di giugno?
Quale azienda ha il secondo miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di giugno?
Anthropic 46%
Google 27%
OpenAI 8.4%
DeepSeek 8.0%
$346,377 Vol.
$346,377 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Anthropic
46%
27%
OpenAI
8%
DeepSeek
8%
xAI
5%
Amazon
2%
Alibaba
2%
Z.ai
1%
Meta
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 46%
Google 27%
OpenAI 8.4%
DeepSeek 8.0%
$346,377 Vol.
$346,377 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Anthropic
$6,559 Vol.
46%
$3,177 Vol.
27%
OpenAI
$31,680 Vol.
8%
DeepSeek
$245,778 Vol.
8%
xAI
$11,911 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$672 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$3,356 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$5,543 Vol.
1%
Meta
$273 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$3,006 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$283 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$32,054 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$228 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,532 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$325 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic with a 45.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—topping Elo scores near 1500 in coding and agentic tasks after its February 2026 launch, edging out OpenAI's GPT-5.4. Google's 27% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's competitive multimodal strengths and efficiency on Pareto frontiers, bolstered by ongoing updates like Gemma 4. Lower odds for OpenAI (8.6%) and DeepSeek (7.8%) stem from expectations of OpenAI retaining the top spot amid rapid iteration, while Chinese models like Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 excel in open-source rankings but trail closed frontier capabilities. Key catalysts include potential pre-June releases from leading labs, with benchmarks like LMSYS human evaluations driving sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$346,377Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic with a 45.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—topping Elo scores near 1500 in coding and agentic tasks after its February 2026 launch, edging out OpenAI's GPT-5.4. Google's 27% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's competitive multimodal strengths and efficiency on Pareto frontiers, bolstered by ongoing updates like Gemma 4. Lower odds for OpenAI (8.6%) and DeepSeek (7.8%) stem from expectations of OpenAI retaining the top spot amid rapid iteration, while Chinese models like Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 excel in open-source rankings but trail closed frontier capabilities. Key catalysts include potential pre-June releases from leading labs, with benchmarks like LMSYS human evaluations driving sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$346,377Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic with a 45.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—topping Elo scores near 1500 in coding and agentic tasks after its February 2026 launch, edging out OpenAI's GPT-5.4. Google's 27% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's competitive multimodal strengths and efficiency on Pareto frontiers, bolstered by ongoing updates like Gemma 4. Lower odds for OpenAI (8.6%) and DeepSeek (7.8%) stem from expectations of OpenAI retaining the top spot amid rapid iteration, while Chinese models like Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 excel in open-source rankings but trail closed frontier capabilities. Key catalysts include potential pre-June releases from leading labs, with benchmarks like LMSYS human evaluations driving sentiment shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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