Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.2% implied probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any S-1 registration filing with the SEC and credible reports targeting a Q4 debut at earliest, potentially raising $60 billion at $350–600 billion valuations. Preparatory moves—like hiring Wilson Sonsini in December 2025 and banker pitches in March 2026—signal deliberate pacing amid explosive Claude large language model growth to $30 billion annual run-rate, bolstered by Amazon and Google investments, while recent rejection of $800 billion private offers underscores control ahead of public markets. Realistic challenges include a surprise accelerated filing driven by competitive pressures from OpenAI or surging AI sentiment, though standard 4–6 month IPO timelines make Q2 unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCapitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO antropica
Capitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO antropica
Nessuna IPO entro il 30 giugno 2026 97.2%
600 miliardi+ 1.5%
400–600 miliardi <1%
100–200 miliardi <1%
$987,668 Vol.
$987,668 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<100 miliardi
<1%
100–200 miliardi
<1%
200–300 miliardi
<1%
300–400 miliardi
<1%
400–600 miliardi
1%
600 miliardi+
1%
Nessuna IPO entro il 30 giugno 2026
97%
Nessuna IPO entro il 30 giugno 2026 97.2%
600 miliardi+ 1.5%
400–600 miliardi <1%
100–200 miliardi <1%
$987,668 Vol.
$987,668 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<100 miliardi
$208,484 Vol.
<1%
100–200 miliardi
$69,307 Vol.
<1%
200–300 miliardi
$124,849 Vol.
<1%
300–400 miliardi
$73,181 Vol.
<1%
400–600 miliardi
$98,877 Vol.
1%
600 miliardi+
$238,778 Vol.
1%
Nessuna IPO entro il 30 giugno 2026
$174,191 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.2% implied probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any S-1 registration filing with the SEC and credible reports targeting a Q4 debut at earliest, potentially raising $60 billion at $350–600 billion valuations. Preparatory moves—like hiring Wilson Sonsini in December 2025 and banker pitches in March 2026—signal deliberate pacing amid explosive Claude large language model growth to $30 billion annual run-rate, bolstered by Amazon and Google investments, while recent rejection of $800 billion private offers underscores control ahead of public markets. Realistic challenges include a surprise accelerated filing driven by competitive pressures from OpenAI or surging AI sentiment, though standard 4–6 month IPO timelines make Q2 unlikely.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercato aperto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$987,668Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.2% implied probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any S-1 registration filing with the SEC and credible reports targeting a Q4 debut at earliest, potentially raising $60 billion at $350–600 billion valuations. Preparatory moves—like hiring Wilson Sonsini in December 2025 and banker pitches in March 2026—signal deliberate pacing amid explosive Claude large language model growth to $30 billion annual run-rate, bolstered by Amazon and Google investments, while recent rejection of $800 billion private offers underscores control ahead of public markets. Realistic challenges include a surprise accelerated filing driven by competitive pressures from OpenAI or surging AI sentiment, though standard 4–6 month IPO timelines make Q2 unlikely.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$987,668Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.2% implied probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any S-1 registration filing with the SEC and credible reports targeting a Q4 debut at earliest, potentially raising $60 billion at $350–600 billion valuations. Preparatory moves—like hiring Wilson Sonsini in December 2025 and banker pitches in March 2026—signal deliberate pacing amid explosive Claude large language model growth to $30 billion annual run-rate, bolstered by Amazon and Google investments, while recent rejection of $800 billion private offers underscores control ahead of public markets. Realistic challenges include a surprise accelerated filing driven by competitive pressures from OpenAI or surging AI sentiment, though standard 4–6 month IPO timelines make Q2 unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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