Anthropic’s confidential filing of its draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC on June 1 has emerged as the decisive catalyst behind the 81.5% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The move follows earlier steps including engagement of specialized counsel and internal discussions targeting a potential fall listing, while Anthropic’s enterprise-focused large language model strategy and recent valuation surge to $965 billion have strengthened its positioning. OpenAI, by contrast, continues preparations with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for a possible confidential filing in the coming weeks and a September or Q4 2026 debut, but has not yet submitted paperwork. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s completed filing and clearer near-term path as the factor most likely to determine which company lists first amid the broader 2026 AI IPO wave.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAnthropic
$69,334 Vol.
$69,334 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Anthropic
$69,334 Vol.
$69,334 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential filing of its draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC on June 1 has emerged as the decisive catalyst behind the 81.5% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The move follows earlier steps including engagement of specialized counsel and internal discussions targeting a potential fall listing, while Anthropic’s enterprise-focused large language model strategy and recent valuation surge to $965 billion have strengthened its positioning. OpenAI, by contrast, continues preparations with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for a possible confidential filing in the coming weeks and a September or Q4 2026 debut, but has not yet submitted paperwork. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s completed filing and clearer near-term path as the factor most likely to determine which company lists first amid the broader 2026 AI IPO wave.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$69,334Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential filing of its draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC on June 1 has emerged as the decisive catalyst behind the 81.5% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The move follows earlier steps including engagement of specialized counsel and internal discussions targeting a potential fall listing, while Anthropic’s enterprise-focused large language model strategy and recent valuation surge to $965 billion have strengthened its positioning. OpenAI, by contrast, continues preparations with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for a possible confidential filing in the coming weeks and a September or Q4 2026 debut, but has not yet submitted paperwork. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s completed filing and clearer near-term path as the factor most likely to determine which company lists first amid the broader 2026 AI IPO wave.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$69,334Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s confidential filing of its draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC on June 1 has emerged as the decisive catalyst behind the 81.5% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The move follows earlier steps including engagement of specialized counsel and internal discussions targeting a potential fall listing, while Anthropic’s enterprise-focused large language model strategy and recent valuation surge to $965 billion have strengthened its positioning. OpenAI, by contrast, continues preparations with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for a possible confidential filing in the coming weeks and a September or Q4 2026 debut, but has not yet submitted paperwork. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s completed filing and clearer near-term path as the factor most likely to determine which company lists first amid the broader 2026 AI IPO wave.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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