Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation and a targeted public prospectus release after Labor Day with a late-September or early-October Nasdaq debut, has driven the 95.5% market-implied odds that it will list before OpenAI. The company’s faster revenue trajectory, led by Claude large language model adoption, and engagement of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley contrast with OpenAI’s reported internal shift toward a 2027 timeline amid valuation targets near $1 trillion and post-SpaceX market volatility. Traders see limited realistic paths for reversal, though a sudden regulatory delay, SEC review extension, or material shift in OpenAI’s readiness could still alter the sequence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAnthropic
96% probabilità
$326,185 Vol.
$326,185 Vol.
30 dic 2027
Anthropic
96% probabilità
$326,185 Vol.
$326,185 Vol.
30 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation and a targeted public prospectus release after Labor Day with a late-September or early-October Nasdaq debut, has driven the 95.5% market-implied odds that it will list before OpenAI. The company’s faster revenue trajectory, led by Claude large language model adoption, and engagement of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley contrast with OpenAI’s reported internal shift toward a 2027 timeline amid valuation targets near $1 trillion and post-SpaceX market volatility. Traders see limited realistic paths for reversal, though a sudden regulatory delay, SEC review extension, or material shift in OpenAI’s readiness could still alter the sequence.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$326,185Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation and a targeted public prospectus release after Labor Day with a late-September or early-October Nasdaq debut, has driven the 95.5% market-implied odds that it will list before OpenAI. The company’s faster revenue trajectory, led by Claude large language model adoption, and engagement of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley contrast with OpenAI’s reported internal shift toward a 2027 timeline amid valuation targets near $1 trillion and post-SpaceX market volatility. Traders see limited realistic paths for reversal, though a sudden regulatory delay, SEC review extension, or material shift in OpenAI’s readiness could still alter the sequence.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$326,185Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation and a targeted public prospectus release after Labor Day with a late-September or early-October Nasdaq debut, has driven the 95.5% market-implied odds that it will list before OpenAI. The company’s faster revenue trajectory, led by Claude large language model adoption, and engagement of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley contrast with OpenAI’s reported internal shift toward a 2027 timeline amid valuation targets near $1 trillion and post-SpaceX market volatility. Traders see limited realistic paths for reversal, though a sudden regulatory delay, SEC review extension, or material shift in OpenAI’s readiness could still alter the sequence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
L'offerta pubblica iniziale di Anthropic avverrà nell'ottobre 2026 (ET)?
87%
Sì
Anthropic o OpenAI: quale avrà una capitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO più alta?
72%
Anthropic
La capitalizzazione di mercato di Anthropic sarà pari o superiore a 600 miliardi di dollari alla chiusura del mercato il giorno dell’IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2027?
96%
Sì
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