President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's January declaration of 2026 as a "year of reform," coupled with the AK Party's late-2025 pledge to submit a new constitution draft, initially fueled speculation, yet trader consensus at 79% "No" reflects stalled momentum four months in. The ruling People's Alliance holds around 320 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote supermajority needed to trigger a referendum without opposition buy-in. No parliamentary committee advancements, bill introductions, or official announcements have emerged since early-year rhetoric, amid competing priorities like economic legislation and opposition resistance to perceived term-limit maneuvers. Upcoming sessions could shift dynamics, but structural barriers dominate sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
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31 dic 2026
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31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's January declaration of 2026 as a "year of reform," coupled with the AK Party's late-2025 pledge to submit a new constitution draft, initially fueled speculation, yet trader consensus at 79% "No" reflects stalled momentum four months in. The ruling People's Alliance holds around 320 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote supermajority needed to trigger a referendum without opposition buy-in. No parliamentary committee advancements, bill introductions, or official announcements have emerged since early-year rhetoric, amid competing priorities like economic legislation and opposition resistance to perceived term-limit maneuvers. Upcoming sessions could shift dynamics, but structural barriers dominate sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$204Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's January declaration of 2026 as a "year of reform," coupled with the AK Party's late-2025 pledge to submit a new constitution draft, initially fueled speculation, yet trader consensus at 79% "No" reflects stalled momentum four months in. The ruling People's Alliance holds around 320 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote supermajority needed to trigger a referendum without opposition buy-in. No parliamentary committee advancements, bill introductions, or official announcements have emerged since early-year rhetoric, amid competing priorities like economic legislation and opposition resistance to perceived term-limit maneuvers. Upcoming sessions could shift dynamics, but structural barriers dominate sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$204Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's January declaration of 2026 as a "year of reform," coupled with the AK Party's late-2025 pledge to submit a new constitution draft, initially fueled speculation, yet trader consensus at 79% "No" reflects stalled momentum four months in. The ruling People's Alliance holds around 320 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote supermajority needed to trigger a referendum without opposition buy-in. No parliamentary committee advancements, bill introductions, or official announcements have emerged since early-year rhetoric, amid competing priorities like economic legislation and opposition resistance to perceived term-limit maneuvers. Upcoming sessions could shift dynamics, but structural barriers dominate sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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