Recent statements from President Erdogan’s chief legal advisor Mehmet Uçum underscore that any new constitution is unlikely to advance in the current 28th legislative term, pointing instead to the 29th parliament after 2028 elections. Cross-party majorities have prioritized PKK-related peace legislation over constitutional overhaul, while internal AKP proposals focus on limited power reallocations rather than broad amendments. Erdogan’s coalition lacks the reliable 360-seat threshold needed to trigger a referendum, and opposition parties remain divided on supporting changes that could extend presidential terms. These factors align with the 85.5% trader consensus that no referendum will be formally announced before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato16% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
16% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent statements from President Erdogan’s chief legal advisor Mehmet Uçum underscore that any new constitution is unlikely to advance in the current 28th legislative term, pointing instead to the 29th parliament after 2028 elections. Cross-party majorities have prioritized PKK-related peace legislation over constitutional overhaul, while internal AKP proposals focus on limited power reallocations rather than broad amendments. Erdogan’s coalition lacks the reliable 360-seat threshold needed to trigger a referendum, and opposition parties remain divided on supporting changes that could extend presidential terms. These factors align with the 85.5% trader consensus that no referendum will be formally announced before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$6,794Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent statements from President Erdogan’s chief legal advisor Mehmet Uçum underscore that any new constitution is unlikely to advance in the current 28th legislative term, pointing instead to the 29th parliament after 2028 elections. Cross-party majorities have prioritized PKK-related peace legislation over constitutional overhaul, while internal AKP proposals focus on limited power reallocations rather than broad amendments. Erdogan’s coalition lacks the reliable 360-seat threshold needed to trigger a referendum, and opposition parties remain divided on supporting changes that could extend presidential terms. These factors align with the 85.5% trader consensus that no referendum will be formally announced before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,794Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent statements from President Erdogan’s chief legal advisor Mehmet Uçum underscore that any new constitution is unlikely to advance in the current 28th legislative term, pointing instead to the 29th parliament after 2028 elections. Cross-party majorities have prioritized PKK-related peace legislation over constitutional overhaul, while internal AKP proposals focus on limited power reallocations rather than broad amendments. Erdogan’s coalition lacks the reliable 360-seat threshold needed to trigger a referendum, and opposition parties remain divided on supporting changes that could extend presidential terms. These factors align with the 85.5% trader consensus that no referendum will be formally announced before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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