Trader consensus favors "No" at 60% implied probability for a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, driven by the absence of any official declaration or parliamentary progress since early this year despite late-2025 signals from AKP insiders hinting at a late-2026 vote. President Erdoğan's administration continues advocating a new constitution as a national goal, but he has publicly denied it aims to extend his term beyond 2028 limits under the 2017 referendum changes. The ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds around 320 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360 needed to advance amendments to referendum without broader opposition support from parties like DEM or CHP amid economic pressures and political polarization. No recent legislative votes, committee actions, or coalition negotiations have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics.