Polymarket traders assign a 76.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs amid resilient labor conditions. These hotter-than-expected inflation and employment prints, alongside March FOMC minutes highlighting risks from geopolitical oil shocks, have tempered easing expectations, relegating a 25 basis point cut to 13.5% odds while keeping hikes below 5%. Brokerage forecasts still eye two 2026 cuts overall, but trader consensus reflects caution; watch the April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts in the policy path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessun cambiamento 77%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 14%
Aumento di 25 punti base 4.0%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 3.5%
$3,654,750 Vol.
$3,654,750 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
3%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
14%
Nessun cambiamento
77%
Aumento di 25 punti base
4%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Nessun cambiamento 77%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 14%
Aumento di 25 punti base 4.0%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 3.5%
$3,654,750 Vol.
$3,654,750 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$162,862 Vol.
3%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$112,078 Vol.
14%
Nessun cambiamento
$173,570 Vol.
77%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$3,017,932 Vol.
4%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$188,308 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 76.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs amid resilient labor conditions. These hotter-than-expected inflation and employment prints, alongside March FOMC minutes highlighting risks from geopolitical oil shocks, have tempered easing expectations, relegating a 25 basis point cut to 13.5% odds while keeping hikes below 5%. Brokerage forecasts still eye two 2026 cuts overall, but trader consensus reflects caution; watch the April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts in the policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$3,654,750Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 76.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs amid resilient labor conditions. These hotter-than-expected inflation and employment prints, alongside March FOMC minutes highlighting risks from geopolitical oil shocks, have tempered easing expectations, relegating a 25 basis point cut to 13.5% odds while keeping hikes below 5%. Brokerage forecasts still eye two 2026 cuts overall, but trader consensus reflects caution; watch the April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts in the policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$3,654,750Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 76.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs amid resilient labor conditions. These hotter-than-expected inflation and employment prints, alongside March FOMC minutes highlighting risks from geopolitical oil shocks, have tempered easing expectations, relegating a 25 basis point cut to 13.5% odds while keeping hikes below 5%. Brokerage forecasts still eye two 2026 cuts overall, but trader consensus reflects caution; watch the April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts in the policy path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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