Recent polls show Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leading first-round voting intentions near 30 percent ahead of the April 2027 contest, with Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon clustered behind, reflecting RN strength on immigration and security alongside a fragmented center and divided left. Marine Le Pen’s pending appeal on her embezzlement conviction and potential office ban have shifted trader attention toward Bardella as the likely RN standard-bearer. Philippe’s positioning as a Macron-era successor faces headwinds from investigations and weak consolidation among centrist voters, while Mélenchon’s recent gains highlight left-wing mobilization. These crosscurrents, plus uncertainty over runoff pairings and coalition dynamics, keep probabilities closely matched among the top three and limit separation until clearer candidate fields and voter alignments emerge.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoProssime elezioni presidenziali francesi
Prossime elezioni presidenziali francesi
Marine Le Pen 30.6%
Édouard Philippe 27%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13%
Jordan Bardella 3.6%
$115,612,640 Vol.
$115,612,640 Vol.
Marine Le Pen
31%
Édouard Philippe
27%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
13%
Jordan Bardella
4%
François Hollande
3%
Bruno Retailleau
3%
Gabriel Attal
2%
David Lisnard
2%
Raphaël Glucksmann
2%
Dominique de Villepin
2%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Sarah Knafo
1%
Éric Zemmour
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
<1%
Jean Castex
<1%
Gérald Darmanin
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%
Juan Branco
<1%
François Ruffin
<1%
Marine Tondelier
<1%
Olivier Faure
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
Karim Bouamrane
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Valérie Pécresse
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Manuel Bompard
<1%
Lucie Castets
<1%
François Baroin
<1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
François Bayrou
<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
Yannick Jadot
<1%
Marion Maréchal
<1%
Marine Le Pen 30.6%
Édouard Philippe 27%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13%
Jordan Bardella 3.6%
$115,612,640 Vol.
$115,612,640 Vol.
Marine Le Pen
31%
Édouard Philippe
27%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
13%
Jordan Bardella
4%
François Hollande
3%
Bruno Retailleau
3%
Gabriel Attal
2%
David Lisnard
2%
Raphaël Glucksmann
2%
Dominique de Villepin
2%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Sarah Knafo
1%
Éric Zemmour
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
<1%
Jean Castex
<1%
Gérald Darmanin
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%
Juan Branco
<1%
François Ruffin
<1%
Marine Tondelier
<1%
Olivier Faure
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
Karim Bouamrane
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Valérie Pécresse
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Manuel Bompard
<1%
Lucie Castets
<1%
François Baroin
<1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
François Bayrou
<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
Yannick Jadot
<1%
Marion Maréchal
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls show Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leading first-round voting intentions near 30 percent ahead of the April 2027 contest, with Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon clustered behind, reflecting RN strength on immigration and security alongside a fragmented center and divided left. Marine Le Pen’s pending appeal on her embezzlement conviction and potential office ban have shifted trader attention toward Bardella as the likely RN standard-bearer. Philippe’s positioning as a Macron-era successor faces headwinds from investigations and weak consolidation among centrist voters, while Mélenchon’s recent gains highlight left-wing mobilization. These crosscurrents, plus uncertainty over runoff pairings and coalition dynamics, keep probabilities closely matched among the top three and limit separation until clearer candidate fields and voter alignments emerge.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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