Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote consistently places incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva first with roughly 38–43 percent support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 33–39 percent, while other declared candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado remain in single digits. This ordering has held across multiple survey houses in the final weeks before the ballot, reflecting a polarized contest between the Workers’ Party and the Liberal Party in which right-wing support has coalesced around the Bolsonaro family name despite Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing ineligibility. A recent institutional dispute within the Supreme Court has energized conservative voters and narrowed second-round simulations, yet it has not altered the first-round hierarchy enough to elevate any third candidate into contention for second place. Traders therefore assign Flávio Bolsonaro the highest implied probability of finishing runner-up.