The 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race remains a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4 first round, with recent Genial/Quaest and other state polls showing a technical tie or narrow margins in both rounds. Rodrigues benefits from steady approval near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure, while Neto consolidates support among independents and right-leaning voters after his party's 2025 break from the Lula coalition and alignment with the broader opposition bloc. This rematch dynamic, combined with Bahia's divided electorate and shifting national alliances, sustains the close trader consensus reflected in current odds. Late polling shifts, turnout in the interior, or campaign events could still alter the balance before voting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoACM Neto 53%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 46%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$32,753 Vol.
$32,753 Vol.
4 ott 2026
ACM Neto
53%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
46%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 53%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 46%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$32,753 Vol.
$32,753 Vol.
4 ott 2026
ACM Neto
$9,636 Vol.
53%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$9,811 Vol.
46%
José Carlos Aleluia
$3,671 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$2,077 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$2,173 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,935 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race remains a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4 first round, with recent Genial/Quaest and other state polls showing a technical tie or narrow margins in both rounds. Rodrigues benefits from steady approval near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure, while Neto consolidates support among independents and right-leaning voters after his party's 2025 break from the Lula coalition and alignment with the broader opposition bloc. This rematch dynamic, combined with Bahia's divided electorate and shifting national alliances, sustains the close trader consensus reflected in current odds. Late polling shifts, turnout in the interior, or campaign events could still alter the balance before voting.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$32,753Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race remains a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4 first round, with recent Genial/Quaest and other state polls showing a technical tie or narrow margins in both rounds. Rodrigues benefits from steady approval near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure, while Neto consolidates support among independents and right-leaning voters after his party's 2025 break from the Lula coalition and alignment with the broader opposition bloc. This rematch dynamic, combined with Bahia's divided electorate and shifting national alliances, sustains the close trader consensus reflected in current odds. Late polling shifts, turnout in the interior, or campaign events could still alter the balance before voting.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$32,753Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race remains a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4 first round, with recent Genial/Quaest and other state polls showing a technical tie or narrow margins in both rounds. Rodrigues benefits from steady approval near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure, while Neto consolidates support among independents and right-leaning voters after his party's 2025 break from the Lula coalition and alignment with the broader opposition bloc. This rematch dynamic, combined with Bahia's divided electorate and shifting national alliances, sustains the close trader consensus reflected in current odds. Late polling shifts, turnout in the interior, or campaign events could still alter the balance before voting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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