Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds the leading position in trader pricing amid a rematch against ACM Neto (União Brasil). Recent polling from late August and early September shows a technical tie in first-round intentions, with both candidates near 44-49% and second-round matchups similarly close within margins of error. Key factors include Rodrigues’s reported 57% approval rating, his established base in Bahia’s interior municipalities, and active campaigning since the August start of official propaganda, including extensive travel across dozens of cities. Neto has focused criticism on federal and state road infrastructure while leveraging his Salvador mayoral record. Minor candidates register negligible support, leaving the contest centered on these two ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders appear to assign greater weight to incumbency advantages and coalition dynamics than raw poll volatility suggests.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJerônimo Rodrigues 62%
ACM Neto 39%
João Roma <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$150,517 Vol.
$150,517 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
62%
ACM Neto
39%
João Roma
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 62%
ACM Neto 39%
João Roma <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$150,517 Vol.
$150,517 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$49,800 Vol.
62%
ACM Neto
$58,593 Vol.
39%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$11,986 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$13,880 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds the leading position in trader pricing amid a rematch against ACM Neto (União Brasil). Recent polling from late August and early September shows a technical tie in first-round intentions, with both candidates near 44-49% and second-round matchups similarly close within margins of error. Key factors include Rodrigues’s reported 57% approval rating, his established base in Bahia’s interior municipalities, and active campaigning since the August start of official propaganda, including extensive travel across dozens of cities. Neto has focused criticism on federal and state road infrastructure while leveraging his Salvador mayoral record. Minor candidates register negligible support, leaving the contest centered on these two ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders appear to assign greater weight to incumbency advantages and coalition dynamics than raw poll volatility suggests.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$150,517Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds the leading position in trader pricing amid a rematch against ACM Neto (União Brasil). Recent polling from late August and early September shows a technical tie in first-round intentions, with both candidates near 44-49% and second-round matchups similarly close within margins of error. Key factors include Rodrigues’s reported 57% approval rating, his established base in Bahia’s interior municipalities, and active campaigning since the August start of official propaganda, including extensive travel across dozens of cities. Neto has focused criticism on federal and state road infrastructure while leveraging his Salvador mayoral record. Minor candidates register negligible support, leaving the contest centered on these two ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders appear to assign greater weight to incumbency advantages and coalition dynamics than raw poll volatility suggests.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$150,517Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds the leading position in trader pricing amid a rematch against ACM Neto (União Brasil). Recent polling from late August and early September shows a technical tie in first-round intentions, with both candidates near 44-49% and second-round matchups similarly close within margins of error. Key factors include Rodrigues’s reported 57% approval rating, his established base in Bahia’s interior municipalities, and active campaigning since the August start of official propaganda, including extensive travel across dozens of cities. Neto has focused criticism on federal and state road infrastructure while leveraging his Salvador mayoral record. Minor candidates register negligible support, leaving the contest centered on these two ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders appear to assign greater weight to incumbency advantages and coalition dynamics than raw poll volatility suggests.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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