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icon for Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di Bahia
Elezioni·Brasile

Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di Bahia

icon for Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di Bahia
Elezioni·Brasile

Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di Bahia

Jerônimo Rodrigues 62%

ACM Neto 38%

João Roma <1%

José Carlos Aleluia <1%

Polymarket

$150,608 Vol.

Jerônimo Rodrigues 62%

ACM Neto 38%

João Roma <1%

José Carlos Aleluia <1%

Polymarket

$150,608 Vol.

icon for Jerônimo Rodrigues

Jerônimo Rodrigues

$49,800 Vol.

62%

icon for ACM Neto

ACM Neto

$58,683 Vol.

38%

icon for João Roma

João Roma

$5,186 Vol.

<1%

icon for José Carlos Aleluia

José Carlos Aleluia

$11,986 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kleber Rosa

Kleber Rosa

$13,880 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa

Rui Costa

$5,747 Vol.

<1%

icon for Bruno Soares Reis

Bruno Soares Reis

$5,325 Vol.

<1%

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues, the incumbent PT governor seeking re-election, leads trader pricing for the Bahia gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round, reflecting his institutional advantages and the party's uninterrupted control of the state executive since 2007. Recent September polls, including AtlasIntel and Real Time Big Data surveys, show a technical tie with ACM Neto of União Brasil, each hovering near 44-49% in first-round scenarios and similar margins in runoff simulations. The contest centers on voter consolidation between these two frontrunners, with negligible support for minor candidates such as Ronaldo Mansur. Ongoing free electoral airtime and campaign events in the interior continue to shape turnout dynamics in this closely contested state election.

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$150,608
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues, the incumbent PT governor seeking re-election, leads trader pricing for the Bahia gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round, reflecting his institutional advantages and the party's uninterrupted control of the state executive since 2007. Recent September polls, including AtlasIntel and Real Time Big Data surveys, show a technical tie with ACM Neto of União Brasil, each hovering near 44-49% in first-round scenarios and similar margins in runoff simulations. The contest centers on voter consolidation between these two frontrunners, with negligible support for minor candidates such as Ronaldo Mansur. Ongoing free electoral airtime and campaign events in the interior continue to shape turnout dynamics in this closely contested state election.

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$150,608
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

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Domande frequenti

"Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di Bahia" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Jerônimo Rodrigues" a 62%, seguito da "ACM Neto" a 38%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 62¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 62% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di Bahia" ha generato $150.6K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 27, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di Bahia", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di Bahia" è "Jerônimo Rodrigues" a 62%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 62% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "ACM Neto" a 38%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di Bahia" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.