Recent polling in the Federal District Senate race shows Leila do Vôlei leading, with Michelle Bolsonaro, Érika Kokay, and Bia Kicis clustered closely behind in the battle for the second seat. Candidate registrations closed in mid-August, formalizing a field that includes multiple PL contenders and established names from PT and PDT. Michelle Bolsonaro’s late confirmation as the PL nominee, following party conventions and a publicized family reconciliation, has concentrated right-leaning support, while left-leaning voters remain split. This fragmentation, combined with the district’s compact electorate and absence of a dominant frontrunner beyond the leader, sustains tight probabilities for second place. Late campaign developments, turnout among evangelical and public-sector voters, and any final shifts in alliances before October could still reorder the contenders.