Recent polls, including Futura/Apex on April 14 showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39.9% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 37.3% in first-round voting intentions, have tightened the race ahead of Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election, driving trader consensus toward a narrow Lula victory margin under 5% at 39.5% implied probability. Supporting surveys from CNT/MDA and Paraná Pesquisas confirm Lula's slim first-round lead of 2-6 points over Bolsonaro, positioning Lula 5-10% margins at 22% and Bolsonaro under 5% at 19%, amid fragmented fields where no candidate nears 50% for outright victory. A federal police probe into Bolsonaro for potential defamation, announced April 15, introduces minor uncertainty, but polls reflect steady incumbency advantages and right-wing consolidation behind the senator as Jair Bolsonaro's successor, with lower odds for other candidates like Renan Santos or Tarcísio de Freitas.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPrimo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: margine di vittoria
Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: margine di vittoria
Lula da Silva <5% 39%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 22%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+ 7.8%
$219,671 Vol.
$219,671 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
22%
Lula da Silva <5%
39%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
19%
Vittoria di Renan Santos
5%
Vittoria di Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Vittoria di Ratinho Júnior
1%
Altro
4%
Lula da Silva <5% 39%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 22%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+ 7.8%
$219,671 Vol.
$219,671 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,822 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$1,621 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,098 Vol.
22%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,962 Vol.
39%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,126 Vol.
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$1,310 Vol.
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$2,760 Vol.
19%
Vittoria di Renan Santos
$197,660 Vol.
5%
Vittoria di Tarcisio de Freitas
$790 Vol.
<1%
Vittoria di Ratinho Júnior
$1,024 Vol.
1%
Altro
$1,497 Vol.
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Futura/Apex on April 14 showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39.9% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 37.3% in first-round voting intentions, have tightened the race ahead of Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election, driving trader consensus toward a narrow Lula victory margin under 5% at 39.5% implied probability. Supporting surveys from CNT/MDA and Paraná Pesquisas confirm Lula's slim first-round lead of 2-6 points over Bolsonaro, positioning Lula 5-10% margins at 22% and Bolsonaro under 5% at 19%, amid fragmented fields where no candidate nears 50% for outright victory. A federal police probe into Bolsonaro for potential defamation, announced April 15, introduces minor uncertainty, but polls reflect steady incumbency advantages and right-wing consolidation behind the senator as Jair Bolsonaro's successor, with lower odds for other candidates like Renan Santos or Tarcísio de Freitas.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$219,671Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Futura/Apex on April 14 showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39.9% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 37.3% in first-round voting intentions, have tightened the race ahead of Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election, driving trader consensus toward a narrow Lula victory margin under 5% at 39.5% implied probability. Supporting surveys from CNT/MDA and Paraná Pesquisas confirm Lula's slim first-round lead of 2-6 points over Bolsonaro, positioning Lula 5-10% margins at 22% and Bolsonaro under 5% at 19%, amid fragmented fields where no candidate nears 50% for outright victory. A federal police probe into Bolsonaro for potential defamation, announced April 15, introduces minor uncertainty, but polls reflect steady incumbency advantages and right-wing consolidation behind the senator as Jair Bolsonaro's successor, with lower odds for other candidates like Renan Santos or Tarcísio de Freitas.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$219,671Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including Futura/Apex on April 14 showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39.9% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 37.3% in first-round voting intentions, have tightened the race ahead of Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election, driving trader consensus toward a narrow Lula victory margin under 5% at 39.5% implied probability. Supporting surveys from CNT/MDA and Paraná Pesquisas confirm Lula's slim first-round lead of 2-6 points over Bolsonaro, positioning Lula 5-10% margins at 22% and Bolsonaro under 5% at 19%, amid fragmented fields where no candidate nears 50% for outright victory. A federal police probe into Bolsonaro for potential defamation, announced April 15, introduces minor uncertainty, but polls reflect steady incumbency advantages and right-wing consolidation behind the senator as Jair Bolsonaro's successor, with lower odds for other candidates like Renan Santos or Tarcísio de Freitas.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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