Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Tisza popular vote margin of 12-15% over Fidesz at 94.1%, driven by official results from 98.9% of precincts showing Tisza at 52.1% on the party list ballot versus Fidesz-KDNP's 39.6%, confirming a precise 12.5-point lead after the April 12 parliamentary election. Pre-election independent polls like Medián, AtlasIntel, and Politico's poll of polls averaged Tisza ahead by 11-15 points among decided voters, amplified by record 79.6% turnout that mobilized anti-incumbent sentiment against Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule. Péter Magyar's Tisza secured a supermajority with 137 seats. Remaining uncertainty lies in final certification by the National Electoral Commission or rare recounts from the uncounted 1.1%, though Orbán's concession and observer approval render challenges improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTisza 12-15% 94.0%
Tisza 15-18% 4.5%
Tisza 9-12% 2.0%
Tisza oltre il 18% <1%
$757,355 Vol.
$757,355 Vol.
12 apr 2026
Tisza oltre il 18%
<1%
Tisza 15-18%
5%
Tisza 12-15%
94%
Tisza 9-12%
2%
Tisza <9%
<1%
Altro
<1%
Tisza 12-15% 94.0%
Tisza 15-18% 4.5%
Tisza 9-12% 2.0%
Tisza oltre il 18% <1%
$757,355 Vol.
$757,355 Vol.
12 apr 2026
Tisza oltre il 18%
$156,340 Vol.
<1%
Tisza 15-18%
$196,830 Vol.
5%
Tisza 12-15%
$230,180 Vol.
94%
Tisza 9-12%
$104,742 Vol.
2%
Tisza <9%
$42,370 Vol.
<1%
Altro
$26,892 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Tisza popular vote margin of 12-15% over Fidesz at 94.1%, driven by official results from 98.9% of precincts showing Tisza at 52.1% on the party list ballot versus Fidesz-KDNP's 39.6%, confirming a precise 12.5-point lead after the April 12 parliamentary election. Pre-election independent polls like Medián, AtlasIntel, and Politico's poll of polls averaged Tisza ahead by 11-15 points among decided voters, amplified by record 79.6% turnout that mobilized anti-incumbent sentiment against Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule. Péter Magyar's Tisza secured a supermajority with 137 seats. Remaining uncertainty lies in final certification by the National Electoral Commission or rare recounts from the uncounted 1.1%, though Orbán's concession and observer approval render challenges improbable.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
Volume
$757,355Data di fine
12 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Tisza popular vote margin of 12-15% over Fidesz at 94.1%, driven by official results from 98.9% of precincts showing Tisza at 52.1% on the party list ballot versus Fidesz-KDNP's 39.6%, confirming a precise 12.5-point lead after the April 12 parliamentary election. Pre-election independent polls like Medián, AtlasIntel, and Politico's poll of polls averaged Tisza ahead by 11-15 points among decided voters, amplified by record 79.6% turnout that mobilized anti-incumbent sentiment against Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule. Péter Magyar's Tisza secured a supermajority with 137 seats. Remaining uncertainty lies in final certification by the National Electoral Commission or rare recounts from the uncounted 1.1%, though Orbán's concession and observer approval render challenges improbable.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Volume
$757,355Data di fine
12 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Tisza popular vote margin of 12-15% over Fidesz at 94.1%, driven by official results from 98.9% of precincts showing Tisza at 52.1% on the party list ballot versus Fidesz-KDNP's 39.6%, confirming a precise 12.5-point lead after the April 12 parliamentary election. Pre-election independent polls like Medián, AtlasIntel, and Politico's poll of polls averaged Tisza ahead by 11-15 points among decided voters, amplified by record 79.6% turnout that mobilized anti-incumbent sentiment against Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule. Péter Magyar's Tisza secured a supermajority with 137 seats. Remaining uncertainty lies in final certification by the National Electoral Commission or rare recounts from the uncounted 1.1%, though Orbán's concession and observer approval render challenges improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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