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Elezioni·Magyar

Elezioni in Ungheria: Fidesz-KDNP % del voto popolare

Market icon
Elezioni·Magyar

Elezioni in Ungheria: Fidesz-KDNP % del voto popolare

36-40% 97.8%

40-44% 2.3%

Meno del 36% <1%

44-48% <1%

Polymarket

$143,484 Vol.

36-40% 97.8%

40-44% 2.3%

Meno del 36% <1%

44-48% <1%

Polymarket

$143,484 Vol.

Meno del 36%

$37,045 Vol.

<1%

36-40%

$40,611 Vol.

98%

40-44%

$36,955 Vol.

2%

44-48%

$16,146 Vol.

<1%

Oltre il 48%

$12,727 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Recent partial counts from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with over 98% of precincts reporting, show Fidesz-KDNP securing approximately 38-39% of the national party list popular vote amid record 78-80% turnout—the highest ever—reflecting trader consensus validated by independent pre-election polls like Medián (35%) and 21 Kutatóközpont (37%). Péter Magyar's surging Tisza party captured over 52%, capitalizing on anti-corruption backlash against 16 years of Fidesz dominance, while pro-government surveys had overstated Fidesz support. This commanding 97.8% implied probability stems from consistent list vote trends despite Tisza's supermajority seat win in the mixed electoral system. Realistic challenges include final diaspora votes (historically Fidesz-favoring) or fraud-driven recounts pushing toward 40-44%, though trends suggest stability.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.

This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.

If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
Volume
$143,484
Data di fine
12 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Recent partial counts from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with over 98% of precincts reporting, show Fidesz-KDNP securing approximately 38-39% of the national party list popular vote amid record 78-80% turnout—the highest ever—reflecting trader consensus validated by independent pre-election polls like Medián (35%) and 21 Kutatóközpont (37%). Péter Magyar's surging Tisza party captured over 52%, capitalizing on anti-corruption backlash against 16 years of Fidesz dominance, while pro-government surveys had overstated Fidesz support. This commanding 97.8% implied probability stems from consistent list vote trends despite Tisza's supermajority seat win in the mixed electoral system. Realistic challenges include final diaspora votes (historically Fidesz-favoring) or fraud-driven recounts pushing toward 40-44%, though trends suggest stability.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.

This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.

If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
Volume
$143,484
Data di fine
12 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.

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"Elezioni in Ungheria: Fidesz-KDNP % del voto popolare" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 5 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "36-40%" a 98%, seguito da "40-44%" a 2%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 98¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 98% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Elezioni in Ungheria: Fidesz-KDNP % del voto popolare" ha generato $143.5K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Mar 16, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Elezioni in Ungheria: Fidesz-KDNP % del voto popolare", esplora i 5 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Elezioni in Ungheria: Fidesz-KDNP % del voto popolare" è "36-40%" a 98%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 98% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "40-44%" a 2%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Elezioni in Ungheria: Fidesz-KDNP % del voto popolare" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.