**Incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe commands trader consensus at 60% implied probability for re-election on October 26**, buoyed by his strong incumbency advantage, 50% approval rating from late 2025 polling identifying housing as the top issue, and council's approval of the 2026 budget featuring a 3.75% property tax increase that passed 21-4 in December. Kitchissippi Coun. Jeff Leiper trails at 22% as the primary challenger, leveraging his vocal opposition to budget priorities and ongoing listening tours launched last fall to position against Sutcliffe. Homebuilder Alex Lawson entered the field January 23 with seasoned political backing emphasizing affordability, earning 2.9%, while economist Neil Saravanamuttoo (0.3%), a former McKenney advisor, conditions his run on securing 1,000 grassroots commitments; Catherine McKenney sits at 0.5% amid her focus on the Ottawa Centre MPP role. Absent public polls or shifts in the past 30 days ahead of May 1 nomination filings, odds reflect stable early dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoOttawa Mayoral Election Winner
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner
Mark Sutcliffe 60%
Jeff Leiper 22%
Alex Lawson 2.7%
Catherine McKenney <1%
Mark Sutcliffe
60%
Jeff Leiper
22%
Alex Lawson
3%
Catherine McKenney
<1%
Neil Saravanamuttoo
<1%
Mark Sutcliffe 60%
Jeff Leiper 22%
Alex Lawson 2.7%
Catherine McKenney <1%
Mark Sutcliffe
60%
Jeff Leiper
22%
Alex Lawson
3%
Catherine McKenney
<1%
Neil Saravanamuttoo
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Mercato aperto: Apr 2, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe commands trader consensus at 60% implied probability for re-election on October 26**, buoyed by his strong incumbency advantage, 50% approval rating from late 2025 polling identifying housing as the top issue, and council's approval of the 2026 budget featuring a 3.75% property tax increase that passed 21-4 in December. Kitchissippi Coun. Jeff Leiper trails at 22% as the primary challenger, leveraging his vocal opposition to budget priorities and ongoing listening tours launched last fall to position against Sutcliffe. Homebuilder Alex Lawson entered the field January 23 with seasoned political backing emphasizing affordability, earning 2.9%, while economist Neil Saravanamuttoo (0.3%), a former McKenney advisor, conditions his run on securing 1,000 grassroots commitments; Catherine McKenney sits at 0.5% amid her focus on the Ottawa Centre MPP role. Absent public polls or shifts in the past 30 days ahead of May 1 nomination filings, odds reflect stable early dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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