Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Iván Cepeda Castro with a 91.5% implied probability of topping the first-round vote on May 31, driven by his commanding leads in recent polls like CELAG (48.8% potential) and GAD3 (up to 35-49%), bolstered by the Historic Pact's strong showing in March 8 legislative elections despite no majority. As the left-wing coalition's primary winner and successor to President Gustavo Petro—whose approval has climbed to around 50% amid minimum wage hikes and social spending—Cepeda benefits from continuity momentum and a fragmented opposition, with right-wing votes split between Abelardo de la Espriella (3.7%) and Paloma Valencia (3.1%). Scenarios challenging this include a late anti-left consolidation, security deteriorations undermining "total peace" efforts, or scandals eroding his 45-48% positive image ratings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?
Vincitore del 1° turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Colombia?
Iván Cepeda Castro 92%
Abelardo de la Espriella 3.7%
Paloma Valencia 3.1%
Vicky Dávila <1%
$2,513,609 Vol.
$2,513,609 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro
92%
Abelardo de la Espriella
4%
Paloma Valencia
3%
Vicky Dávila
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
<1%
Claudia López
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar
<1%
Sergio Fajardo
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
<1%
Roy Barreras
<1%
Daniel Quintero
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
<1%
Iván Cepeda Castro 92%
Abelardo de la Espriella 3.7%
Paloma Valencia 3.1%
Vicky Dávila <1%
$2,513,609 Vol.
$2,513,609 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro
$134,208 Vol.
92%
Abelardo de la Espriella
$533,004 Vol.
4%
Paloma Valencia
$273,725 Vol.
3%
Vicky Dávila
$271,306 Vol.
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
$68,088 Vol.
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
$128,533 Vol.
<1%
Claudia López
$92,356 Vol.
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
$194,110 Vol.
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
$81,279 Vol.
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar
$114,581 Vol.
<1%
Sergio Fajardo
$100,279 Vol.
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán
$117,300 Vol.
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
$81,827 Vol.
<1%
Roy Barreras
$110,973 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Quintero
$60,182 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
$56,651 Vol.
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
$58,812 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Iván Cepeda Castro with a 91.5% implied probability of topping the first-round vote on May 31, driven by his commanding leads in recent polls like CELAG (48.8% potential) and GAD3 (up to 35-49%), bolstered by the Historic Pact's strong showing in March 8 legislative elections despite no majority. As the left-wing coalition's primary winner and successor to President Gustavo Petro—whose approval has climbed to around 50% amid minimum wage hikes and social spending—Cepeda benefits from continuity momentum and a fragmented opposition, with right-wing votes split between Abelardo de la Espriella (3.7%) and Paloma Valencia (3.1%). Scenarios challenging this include a late anti-left consolidation, security deteriorations undermining "total peace" efforts, or scandals eroding his 45-48% positive image ratings.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET
Volume
$2,513,609Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Iván Cepeda Castro with a 91.5% implied probability of topping the first-round vote on May 31, driven by his commanding leads in recent polls like CELAG (48.8% potential) and GAD3 (up to 35-49%), bolstered by the Historic Pact's strong showing in March 8 legislative elections despite no majority. As the left-wing coalition's primary winner and successor to President Gustavo Petro—whose approval has climbed to around 50% amid minimum wage hikes and social spending—Cepeda benefits from continuity momentum and a fragmented opposition, with right-wing votes split between Abelardo de la Espriella (3.7%) and Paloma Valencia (3.1%). Scenarios challenging this include a late anti-left consolidation, security deteriorations undermining "total peace" efforts, or scandals eroding his 45-48% positive image ratings.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$2,513,609Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Iván Cepeda Castro with a 91.5% implied probability of topping the first-round vote on May 31, driven by his commanding leads in recent polls like CELAG (48.8% potential) and GAD3 (up to 35-49%), bolstered by the Historic Pact's strong showing in March 8 legislative elections despite no majority. As the left-wing coalition's primary winner and successor to President Gustavo Petro—whose approval has climbed to around 50% amid minimum wage hikes and social spending—Cepeda benefits from continuity momentum and a fragmented opposition, with right-wing votes split between Abelardo de la Espriella (3.7%) and Paloma Valencia (3.1%). Scenarios challenging this include a late anti-left consolidation, security deteriorations undermining "total peace" efforts, or scandals eroding his 45-48% positive image ratings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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