Recent local polling in the Clacton constituency, including a Survation survey reported on 2 August 2026, shows Nigel Farage on approximately 73% vote share against satirical candidate Count Binface at around 20%, on low expected turnout. This constituency-level data aligns closely with trader emphasis on the 70–80% band as the consensus outcome. Clacton remains a Reform UK stronghold, where Farage’s established local base and the party’s 2024 general election performance provide structural advantages. National surveys reflect broader skepticism toward the by-election itself, yet these appear secondary to localized support patterns. With the 13 August vote approaching, turnout dynamics and final campaign mobilization represent the main variables that could shift final percentages within the leading ranges.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFarage 70–80% 48.6%
Farage 60–70% 31%
Farage 80%+ 12%
Farage 50–60% 9%
$113,106 Vol.
$113,106 Vol.
30 giu 2027
Farage <40%
1%
Farage 40–50%
3%
Farage 50–60%
9%
Farage 60–70%
31%
Farage 70–80%
49%
Farage 80%+
12%
Farage 70–80% 48.6%
Farage 60–70% 31%
Farage 80%+ 12%
Farage 50–60% 9%
$113,106 Vol.
$113,106 Vol.
30 giu 2027
Farage <40%
$8,507 Vol.
1%
Farage 40–50%
$8,003 Vol.
3%
Farage 50–60%
$12,886 Vol.
9%
Farage 60–70%
$18,980 Vol.
31%
Farage 70–80%
$31,781 Vol.
49%
Farage 80%+
$32,949 Vol.
12%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Recent local polling in the Clacton constituency, including a Survation survey reported on 2 August 2026, shows Nigel Farage on approximately 73% vote share against satirical candidate Count Binface at around 20%, on low expected turnout. This constituency-level data aligns closely with trader emphasis on the 70–80% band as the consensus outcome. Clacton remains a Reform UK stronghold, where Farage’s established local base and the party’s 2024 general election performance provide structural advantages. National surveys reflect broader skepticism toward the by-election itself, yet these appear secondary to localized support patterns. With the 13 August vote approaching, turnout dynamics and final campaign mobilization represent the main variables that could shift final percentages within the leading ranges.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Mercato aperto: Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$113,106Data di fine
30 giu 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Recent local polling in the Clacton constituency, including a Survation survey reported on 2 August 2026, shows Nigel Farage on approximately 73% vote share against satirical candidate Count Binface at around 20%, on low expected turnout. This constituency-level data aligns closely with trader emphasis on the 70–80% band as the consensus outcome. Clacton remains a Reform UK stronghold, where Farage’s established local base and the party’s 2024 general election performance provide structural advantages. National surveys reflect broader skepticism toward the by-election itself, yet these appear secondary to localized support patterns. With the 13 August vote approaching, turnout dynamics and final campaign mobilization represent the main variables that could shift final percentages within the leading ranges.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$113,106Data di fine
30 giu 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent local polling in the Clacton constituency, including a Survation survey reported on 2 August 2026, shows Nigel Farage on approximately 73% vote share against satirical candidate Count Binface at around 20%, on low expected turnout. This constituency-level data aligns closely with trader emphasis on the 70–80% band as the consensus outcome. Clacton remains a Reform UK stronghold, where Farage’s established local base and the party’s 2024 general election performance provide structural advantages. National surveys reflect broader skepticism toward the by-election itself, yet these appear secondary to localized support patterns. With the 13 August vote approaching, turnout dynamics and final campaign mobilization represent the main variables that could shift final percentages within the leading ranges.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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