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Elezioni·Medio Oriente

Vincitore delle elezioni parlamentari in Libano

Market icon
Elezioni·Medio Oriente

Vincitore delle elezioni parlamentari in Libano

Movimento Amal (Amal) 7.8%

Forze Libanesi (LF) 8%

Partito Taqaddom 5.1%

Movimento per l'Indipendenza (IM) 3.9%

Polymarket

$482,011 Vol.

Movimento Amal (Amal) 7.8%

Forze Libanesi (LF) 8%

Partito Taqaddom 5.1%

Movimento per l'Indipendenza (IM) 3.9%

Polymarket

$482,011 Vol.

Movimento Amal (Amal)

$42,742 Vol.

8%

Forze Libanesi (LF)

$145,198 Vol.

8%

Partito Taqaddom

$4,606 Vol.

5%

Movimento per l'Indipendenza (IM)

$2,444 Vol.

4%

Partito del Dialogo Nazionale (NDP)

$41,078 Vol.

3%

ReLebanon

$2,096 Vol.

2%

Partito Nazionale Liberale (NLP)

$2,970 Vol.

2%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$41,893 Vol.

2%

Organizzazione Nasserista Popolare (PNO)

$2,221 Vol.

2%

Movimento Patriottico Libero (FPM)

$72,509 Vol.

1%

Partito Socialista Arabo Ba'ath in Libano (Ba'ath)

$3,883 Vol.

1%

Movimento Dignità (DM)

$22,250 Vol.

1%

Partito Mada (Mada)

$22,526 Vol.

1%

Associazione dei Progetti di Beneficenza Islamica (ICPA)

$2,885 Vol.

8%

Partito Kataeb (Kataeb)

$2,934 Vol.

1%

Alleanza Watani (Watani)

$3,276 Vol.

1%

Federazione Rivoluzionaria Armena (ARF)

$4,663 Vol.

1%

Gruppo Islamico (IG)

$2,970 Vol.

1%

Movimento Marada (MM)

$2,382 Vol.

1%

Partito dell'Unione (UP)

$2,618 Vol.

1%

Partito Socialista Progressista (PSP)

$47,054 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Partito Socialdemocratico (Lana)

$3,966 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$2,850 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9, 2026, postponing parliamentary elections originally slated for May amid renewed Israeli strikes and Hezbollah-linked escalations, fostering trader consensus on a wide-open field with Amal Movement (7.6%) and Lebanese Forces (7.5%) as marginal leaders due to entrenched Shia and Christian sectarian bases respectively. Amal benefits from Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional clout despite Hezbollah's post-war vulnerabilities, while LF capitalizes on anti-militia sentiment in Christian strongholds. Taqaddom Party trails at 5.5% amid broader fragmentation under proportional representation. Consolidation hinges on pre-election alliances, expanded diaspora voting, Shia opposition challenges to the Amal-Hezbollah duopoly, and regional diplomacy altering proxy influences, with no polls signaling a frontrunner.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$482,011
Data di fine
31 mag 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9, 2026, postponing parliamentary elections originally slated for May amid renewed Israeli strikes and Hezbollah-linked escalations, fostering trader consensus on a wide-open field with Amal Movement (7.6%) and Lebanese Forces (7.5%) as marginal leaders due to entrenched Shia and Christian sectarian bases respectively. Amal benefits from Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional clout despite Hezbollah's post-war vulnerabilities, while LF capitalizes on anti-militia sentiment in Christian strongholds. Taqaddom Party trails at 5.5% amid broader fragmentation under proportional representation. Consolidation hinges on pre-election alliances, expanded diaspora voting, Shia opposition challenges to the Amal-Hezbollah duopoly, and regional diplomacy altering proxy influences, with no polls signaling a frontrunner.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$482,011
Data di fine
31 mag 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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Domande frequenti

"Vincitore delle elezioni parlamentari in Libano" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 23 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Movimento Amal (Amal)" a 8%, seguito da "Forze Libanesi (LF)" a 8%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 8¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 8% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Vincitore delle elezioni parlamentari in Libano" ha generato $482K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Jan 6, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Vincitore delle elezioni parlamentari in Libano", esplora i 23 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

Questo è un mercato molto aperto. L'attuale leader per "Vincitore delle elezioni parlamentari in Libano" è "Movimento Amal (Amal)" a solo 8%, con "Forze Libanesi (LF)" vicino a 8%. Con nessun esito che detiene una forte maggioranza, i trader vedono questo come altamente incerto, il che può presentare opportunità di trading uniche. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale, quindi aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per vedere come si evolvono le probabilità.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore delle elezioni parlamentari in Libano" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.