Keiko Fujimori's implied 75.5% probability of securing a first-round lead exceeding 5% over the runner-up stems from official ONPE tallies at over 91% of ballots processed, showing her at 17.0% versus 12.1% for second-place Roberto Sánchez Palomino—a margin of roughly 4.9%—with traders expecting rural and overseas votes to push it above 5%, consistent with pre-election polls giving her 3-8 point edges over rivals like Rafael López Aliaga, now third at 11.9%. The April 12-13 vote, marred by ballot shortages and extensions affecting thousands, has delayed full certification amid fraud claims lacking evidence, but her urban strength and fragmented 36-candidate field position her for the June 7 runoff. The 20.9% on under 5% reflects tight second-place battles that could narrow the gap if remaining 8% shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPrimo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Perù: margine di vittoria
Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Perù: margine di vittoria
Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 75.7%
Keiko Fujimori <5% 21.0%
Altro 3.2%
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%
$288,336 Vol.
$288,336 Vol.
12 apr 2026
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
76%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
21%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Altro
3%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 75.7%
Keiko Fujimori <5% 21.0%
Altro 3.2%
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%
$288,336 Vol.
$288,336 Vol.
12 apr 2026
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
$8,336 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
$10,022 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
$6,707 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
$11,227 Vol.
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
$6,911 Vol.
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
$6,047 Vol.
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
$79,654 Vol.
76%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
$106,518 Vol.
21%
Jorge Nieto
$6,335 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
$10,618 Vol.
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
$4,420 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
$5,810 Vol.
<1%
Altro
$25,730 Vol.
3%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Keiko Fujimori's implied 75.5% probability of securing a first-round lead exceeding 5% over the runner-up stems from official ONPE tallies at over 91% of ballots processed, showing her at 17.0% versus 12.1% for second-place Roberto Sánchez Palomino—a margin of roughly 4.9%—with traders expecting rural and overseas votes to push it above 5%, consistent with pre-election polls giving her 3-8 point edges over rivals like Rafael López Aliaga, now third at 11.9%. The April 12-13 vote, marred by ballot shortages and extensions affecting thousands, has delayed full certification amid fraud claims lacking evidence, but her urban strength and fragmented 36-candidate field position her for the June 7 runoff. The 20.9% on under 5% reflects tight second-place battles that could narrow the gap if remaining 8% shifts.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercato aperto: Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Volume
$288,336Data di fine
12 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Keiko Fujimori's implied 75.5% probability of securing a first-round lead exceeding 5% over the runner-up stems from official ONPE tallies at over 91% of ballots processed, showing her at 17.0% versus 12.1% for second-place Roberto Sánchez Palomino—a margin of roughly 4.9%—with traders expecting rural and overseas votes to push it above 5%, consistent with pre-election polls giving her 3-8 point edges over rivals like Rafael López Aliaga, now third at 11.9%. The April 12-13 vote, marred by ballot shortages and extensions affecting thousands, has delayed full certification amid fraud claims lacking evidence, but her urban strength and fragmented 36-candidate field position her for the June 7 runoff. The 20.9% on under 5% reflects tight second-place battles that could narrow the gap if remaining 8% shifts.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$288,336Data di fine
12 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Keiko Fujimori's implied 75.5% probability of securing a first-round lead exceeding 5% over the runner-up stems from official ONPE tallies at over 91% of ballots processed, showing her at 17.0% versus 12.1% for second-place Roberto Sánchez Palomino—a margin of roughly 4.9%—with traders expecting rural and overseas votes to push it above 5%, consistent with pre-election polls giving her 3-8 point edges over rivals like Rafael López Aliaga, now third at 11.9%. The April 12-13 vote, marred by ballot shortages and extensions affecting thousands, has delayed full certification amid fraud claims lacking evidence, but her urban strength and fragmented 36-candidate field position her for the June 7 runoff. The 20.9% on under 5% reflects tight second-place battles that could narrow the gap if remaining 8% shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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