Trader consensus reflects a 94.5% implied probability that President Trump will remain in office beyond June 30, anchored by the lack of momentum for impeachment, resignation, or 25th Amendment invocation amid his active governance. Senate Republicans blocked a fourth Democratic resolution limiting Trump's Iran war powers on April 15, affirming GOP congressional support as peace talks loom following collapsed negotiations and Strait of Hormuz threats. Early April medical speculation on presidential fitness sparked brief 25th Amendment debate, but no formal action ensued, with Trump recently hosting the Netherlands' royals, gaggaling with press, and signaling an Iran war end "in sight." Structural barriers like Republican majorities and no credible scandals sustain high stability, though health events or legal developments could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$2,879,229 Vol.
$2,879,229 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$2,879,229 Vol.
$2,879,229 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 94.5% implied probability that President Trump will remain in office beyond June 30, anchored by the lack of momentum for impeachment, resignation, or 25th Amendment invocation amid his active governance. Senate Republicans blocked a fourth Democratic resolution limiting Trump's Iran war powers on April 15, affirming GOP congressional support as peace talks loom following collapsed negotiations and Strait of Hormuz threats. Early April medical speculation on presidential fitness sparked brief 25th Amendment debate, but no formal action ensued, with Trump recently hosting the Netherlands' royals, gaggaling with press, and signaling an Iran war end "in sight." Structural barriers like Republican majorities and no credible scandals sustain high stability, though health events or legal developments could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ET
Volume
$2,879,229Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 94.5% implied probability that President Trump will remain in office beyond June 30, anchored by the lack of momentum for impeachment, resignation, or 25th Amendment invocation amid his active governance. Senate Republicans blocked a fourth Democratic resolution limiting Trump's Iran war powers on April 15, affirming GOP congressional support as peace talks loom following collapsed negotiations and Strait of Hormuz threats. Early April medical speculation on presidential fitness sparked brief 25th Amendment debate, but no formal action ensued, with Trump recently hosting the Netherlands' royals, gaggaling with press, and signaling an Iran war end "in sight." Structural barriers like Republican majorities and no credible scandals sustain high stability, though health events or legal developments could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,879,229Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 94.5% implied probability that President Trump will remain in office beyond June 30, anchored by the lack of momentum for impeachment, resignation, or 25th Amendment invocation amid his active governance. Senate Republicans blocked a fourth Democratic resolution limiting Trump's Iran war powers on April 15, affirming GOP congressional support as peace talks loom following collapsed negotiations and Strait of Hormuz threats. Early April medical speculation on presidential fitness sparked brief 25th Amendment debate, but no formal action ensued, with Trump recently hosting the Netherlands' royals, gaggaling with press, and signaling an Iran war end "in sight." Structural barriers like Republican majorities and no credible scandals sustain high stability, though health events or legal developments could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti