Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current presidential term extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitutional schedule, with the next scheduled election no earlier than May 2028 and no national vote or formal removal process set before the end of 2026. Recent judicial actions, including court rulings removing opposition leaders and ongoing proceedings against figures such as Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, have further consolidated the ruling Justice and Development Party’s institutional position. Erdoğan continues to exercise executive authority through policy announcements on economic regulations, demographic incentives, and regional diplomacy, with no verified indications of resignation, health-related incapacity, or other early-exit triggers. Traders price these structural and political factors into the 91.5 percent probability that he remains in office past December 31, 2026, consistent with the absence of imminent catalysts for change.