Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and its proxies continue to shape assessments of a major Israeli airspace closure. Following multiple closures and reopenings between February and July 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory missile and drone attacks, the Tel Aviv FIR has remained open into August. A July 2026 EASA advisory highlighted renewed risks after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire breakdown and activity near the Strait of Hormuz, while a June temporary closure followed a Yemen-launched missile interception. A U.S. Embassy alert on August 1 noted potential for short-notice disruptions amid heightened tensions. Trader pricing reflects the current open status alongside these volatility signals, with scheduled security assessments and diplomatic developments as key near-term variables that could prompt precautionary measures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$26,918,873 Vol.
15 ago 2026
15 agosto
1%
31 agosto
7%
$26,918,873 Vol.
15 agosto
$905,469 Vol.
1%
31 agosto
$990,219 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and its proxies continue to shape assessments of a major Israeli airspace closure. Following multiple closures and reopenings between February and July 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory missile and drone attacks, the Tel Aviv FIR has remained open into August. A July 2026 EASA advisory highlighted renewed risks after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire breakdown and activity near the Strait of Hormuz, while a June temporary closure followed a Yemen-launched missile interception. A U.S. Embassy alert on August 1 noted potential for short-notice disruptions amid heightened tensions. Trader pricing reflects the current open status alongside these volatility signals, with scheduled security assessments and diplomatic developments as key near-term variables that could prompt precautionary measures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$26,918,873Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and its proxies continue to shape assessments of a major Israeli airspace closure. Following multiple closures and reopenings between February and July 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory missile and drone attacks, the Tel Aviv FIR has remained open into August. A July 2026 EASA advisory highlighted renewed risks after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire breakdown and activity near the Strait of Hormuz, while a June temporary closure followed a Yemen-launched missile interception. A U.S. Embassy alert on August 1 noted potential for short-notice disruptions amid heightened tensions. Trader pricing reflects the current open status alongside these volatility signals, with scheduled security assessments and diplomatic developments as key near-term variables that could prompt precautionary measures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,918,873Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and its proxies continue to shape assessments of a major Israeli airspace closure. Following multiple closures and reopenings between February and July 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory missile and drone attacks, the Tel Aviv FIR has remained open into August. A July 2026 EASA advisory highlighted renewed risks after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire breakdown and activity near the Strait of Hormuz, while a June temporary closure followed a Yemen-launched missile interception. A U.S. Embassy alert on August 1 noted potential for short-notice disruptions amid heightened tensions. Trader pricing reflects the current open status alongside these volatility signals, with scheduled security assessments and diplomatic developments as key near-term variables that could prompt precautionary measures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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