Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026 and renewed military actions near the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver of airspace closure risks for Israel. Israeli authorities have closed and reopened the Tel Aviv FIR multiple times since February amid strikes and retaliatory missile or drone threats, though operations are currently open with heightened volatility and limited airline resumption. Recent EASA advisories highlight ongoing operational risks in the area. Traders assess near-term closure probabilities based on escalation signals from involved parties, potential new strikes, and security assessments by Israeli officials, with historical patterns of temporary shutdowns during active threats informing consensus on timing and triggers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$26,945,671 Vol.
15 ago 2026
15 agosto
2%
31 agosto
6%
$26,945,671 Vol.
15 agosto
$928,341 Vol.
2%
31 agosto
$994,146 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026 and renewed military actions near the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver of airspace closure risks for Israel. Israeli authorities have closed and reopened the Tel Aviv FIR multiple times since February amid strikes and retaliatory missile or drone threats, though operations are currently open with heightened volatility and limited airline resumption. Recent EASA advisories highlight ongoing operational risks in the area. Traders assess near-term closure probabilities based on escalation signals from involved parties, potential new strikes, and security assessments by Israeli officials, with historical patterns of temporary shutdowns during active threats informing consensus on timing and triggers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$26,945,671Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026 and renewed military actions near the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver of airspace closure risks for Israel. Israeli authorities have closed and reopened the Tel Aviv FIR multiple times since February amid strikes and retaliatory missile or drone threats, though operations are currently open with heightened volatility and limited airline resumption. Recent EASA advisories highlight ongoing operational risks in the area. Traders assess near-term closure probabilities based on escalation signals from involved parties, potential new strikes, and security assessments by Israeli officials, with historical patterns of temporary shutdowns during active threats informing consensus on timing and triggers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,945,671Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026 and renewed military actions near the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver of airspace closure risks for Israel. Israeli authorities have closed and reopened the Tel Aviv FIR multiple times since February amid strikes and retaliatory missile or drone threats, though operations are currently open with heightened volatility and limited airline resumption. Recent EASA advisories highlight ongoing operational risks in the area. Traders assess near-term closure probabilities based on escalation signals from involved parties, potential new strikes, and security assessments by Israeli officials, with historical patterns of temporary shutdowns during active threats informing consensus on timing and triggers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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