A U.S.-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 16, 2026, following rare direct talks in Washington, halting cross-border strikes amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that escalated in early March. The truce, welcomed by Hezbollah, has largely held despite isolated incidents like rocket fire killing Israeli soldiers and Israeli warnings against Lebanese returns to southern border areas where troops remain deployed. This de-escalation signal supports broader U.S.-Iran negotiations, with potential extensions tied to Lebanon's sovereignty enforcement against Hezbollah; upcoming White House talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun could shape permanent ceasefire prospects before the truce expires around April 26.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCessate il fuoco Israele x Hezbollah entro...?
Cessate il fuoco Israele x Hezbollah entro...?
$112,638,018 Vol.
30 giu 2026
31 marzo
No
15 aprile
No
18 aprile
Sì
21 aprile
Sì
30 aprile
Sì
30 giugno
Sì
$112,638,018 Vol.
31 marzo
$376,672 Vol.
No
15 aprile
$7,833,258 Vol.
No
18 aprile
$98,599,882 Vol.
Sì
21 aprile
$695,526 Vol.
Sì
30 aprile
$4,369,571 Vol.
Sì
30 giugno
$763,110 Vol.
Sì
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A U.S.-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 16, 2026, following rare direct talks in Washington, halting cross-border strikes amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that escalated in early March. The truce, welcomed by Hezbollah, has largely held despite isolated incidents like rocket fire killing Israeli soldiers and Israeli warnings against Lebanese returns to southern border areas where troops remain deployed. This de-escalation signal supports broader U.S.-Iran negotiations, with potential extensions tied to Lebanon's sovereignty enforcement against Hezbollah; upcoming White House talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun could shape permanent ceasefire prospects before the truce expires around April 26.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Mercato aperto: Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$112,638,018Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A U.S.-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 16, 2026, following rare direct talks in Washington, halting cross-border strikes amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that escalated in early March. The truce, welcomed by Hezbollah, has largely held despite isolated incidents like rocket fire killing Israeli soldiers and Israeli warnings against Lebanese returns to southern border areas where troops remain deployed. This de-escalation signal supports broader U.S.-Iran negotiations, with potential extensions tied to Lebanon's sovereignty enforcement against Hezbollah; upcoming White House talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun could shape permanent ceasefire prospects before the truce expires around April 26.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$112,638,018Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
A U.S.-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah, took effect on April 16, 2026, following rare direct talks in Washington, halting cross-border strikes amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that escalated in early March. The truce, welcomed by Hezbollah, has largely held despite isolated incidents like rocket fire killing Israeli soldiers and Israeli warnings against Lebanese returns to southern border areas where troops remain deployed. This de-escalation signal supports broader U.S.-Iran negotiations, with potential extensions tied to Lebanon's sovereignty enforcement against Hezbollah; upcoming White House talks between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun could shape permanent ceasefire prospects before the truce expires around April 26.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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