Trader consensus prices low probabilities—leading at 9% for any U.S. House member entering Iran—reflecting the risks of physical entry into Iranian territory amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, sparked by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites and leadership. Recent diplomatic momentum, including April 12 Islamabad talks hosted by Pakistan where Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and envoy Steve Witkoff met Iranian officials like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf without crossing into Iran, signals de-escalation efforts but confines engagement to neutral sites. Iran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal on April 6, while indirect talks seek to extend a fragile two-week truce as of April 15. Further negotiation rounds, Hormuz Strait dynamics, or escalation could influence odds ahead of the June 30 resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$324,550 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Qualche membro della Camera degli Stati Uniti
9%
Marco Rubio
7%
JD Vance
7%
Qualsiasi senatore degli Stati Uniti
7%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Jared Kushner
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
2%
Donald Trump
2%
$324,550 Vol.
Qualche membro della Camera degli Stati Uniti
$66,634 Vol.
9%
Marco Rubio
$16,459 Vol.
7%
JD Vance
$19,822 Vol.
7%
Qualsiasi senatore degli Stati Uniti
$24,587 Vol.
7%
Pete Hegseth
$83,570 Vol.
4%
Jared Kushner
$12,299 Vol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$38,211 Vol.
2%
Donald Trump
$62,969 Vol.
2%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices low probabilities—leading at 9% for any U.S. House member entering Iran—reflecting the risks of physical entry into Iranian territory amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, sparked by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites and leadership. Recent diplomatic momentum, including April 12 Islamabad talks hosted by Pakistan where Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and envoy Steve Witkoff met Iranian officials like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf without crossing into Iran, signals de-escalation efforts but confines engagement to neutral sites. Iran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal on April 6, while indirect talks seek to extend a fragile two-week truce as of April 15. Further negotiation rounds, Hormuz Strait dynamics, or escalation could influence odds ahead of the June 30 resolution.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$324,550Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices low probabilities—leading at 9% for any U.S. House member entering Iran—reflecting the risks of physical entry into Iranian territory amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, sparked by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites and leadership. Recent diplomatic momentum, including April 12 Islamabad talks hosted by Pakistan where Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and envoy Steve Witkoff met Iranian officials like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf without crossing into Iran, signals de-escalation efforts but confines engagement to neutral sites. Iran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal on April 6, while indirect talks seek to extend a fragile two-week truce as of April 15. Further negotiation rounds, Hormuz Strait dynamics, or escalation could influence odds ahead of the June 30 resolution.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$324,550Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices low probabilities—leading at 9% for any U.S. House member entering Iran—reflecting the risks of physical entry into Iranian territory amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, sparked by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites and leadership. Recent diplomatic momentum, including April 12 Islamabad talks hosted by Pakistan where Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and envoy Steve Witkoff met Iranian officials like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf without crossing into Iran, signals de-escalation efforts but confines engagement to neutral sites. Iran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal on April 6, while indirect talks seek to extend a fragile two-week truce as of April 15. Further negotiation rounds, Hormuz Strait dynamics, or escalation could influence odds ahead of the June 30 resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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