Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 78.5% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by stalled diplomatic momentum since Kazakhstan's formal accession in November 2025 amid U.S. efforts under the second Trump administration. Saudi Arabia's repeated insistence on Palestinian statehood preconditions and Gaza ceasefire progress has blocked normalization talks, despite earlier optimism from President Trump and envoy Steve Witkoff. Recent Somaliland overtures for recognition and potential Accords entry, highlighted in early April diplomatic statements, face sovereignty hurdles as it remains unrecognized by most nations. Deepening Gulf defense cooperation bolsters existing pacts but yields no new signatories, with no major breakthroughs in the past 30 days.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$21,461 Vol.
$21,461 Vol.
30 giu 2026
$21,461 Vol.
$21,461 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 78.5% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by stalled diplomatic momentum since Kazakhstan's formal accession in November 2025 amid U.S. efforts under the second Trump administration. Saudi Arabia's repeated insistence on Palestinian statehood preconditions and Gaza ceasefire progress has blocked normalization talks, despite earlier optimism from President Trump and envoy Steve Witkoff. Recent Somaliland overtures for recognition and potential Accords entry, highlighted in early April diplomatic statements, face sovereignty hurdles as it remains unrecognized by most nations. Deepening Gulf defense cooperation bolsters existing pacts but yields no new signatories, with no major breakthroughs in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$21,461Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 78.5% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by stalled diplomatic momentum since Kazakhstan's formal accession in November 2025 amid U.S. efforts under the second Trump administration. Saudi Arabia's repeated insistence on Palestinian statehood preconditions and Gaza ceasefire progress has blocked normalization talks, despite earlier optimism from President Trump and envoy Steve Witkoff. Recent Somaliland overtures for recognition and potential Accords entry, highlighted in early April diplomatic statements, face sovereignty hurdles as it remains unrecognized by most nations. Deepening Gulf defense cooperation bolsters existing pacts but yields no new signatories, with no major breakthroughs in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,461Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 78.5% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by stalled diplomatic momentum since Kazakhstan's formal accession in November 2025 amid U.S. efforts under the second Trump administration. Saudi Arabia's repeated insistence on Palestinian statehood preconditions and Gaza ceasefire progress has blocked normalization talks, despite earlier optimism from President Trump and envoy Steve Witkoff. Recent Somaliland overtures for recognition and potential Accords entry, highlighted in early April diplomatic statements, face sovereignty hurdles as it remains unrecognized by most nations. Deepening Gulf defense cooperation bolsters existing pacts but yields no new signatories, with no major breakthroughs in the past 30 days.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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