Trader consensus on Polymarket prices two countries at 55% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iran—including the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant auxiliary and Mahshahr petrochemical zone on April 4, and South Pars facility on April 6—followed by intensified operations against Lebanon since April 7. A US-brokered ceasefire with Iran took effect April 7, yet Israel launched Operation Eternal Darkness with heavy strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon on April 8, killing hundreds amid Hezbollah clashes, and continued attacks as recently as April 15 despite historic direct Israel-Lebanon talks on April 14. The 38.5% on three reflects uncertainty over potential responses to Houthi missile launches from Yemen or Syrian border threats, while ≥4 at 8.5% underscores diplomatic de-escalation signals limiting broader expansion before month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoContro quanti paesi Israele condurrà un'azione militare ad aprile?
Contro quanti paesi Israele condurrà un'azione militare ad aprile?
2 55%
3 38%
≥4 9%
$101,404 Vol.
$101,404 Vol.
30 apr 2026
2
55%
3
38%
≥4
9%
2 55%
3 38%
≥4 9%
$101,404 Vol.
$101,404 Vol.
30 apr 2026
2
$24,336 Vol.
55%
3
$30,032 Vol.
38%
≥4
$39,570 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices two countries at 55% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iran—including the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant auxiliary and Mahshahr petrochemical zone on April 4, and South Pars facility on April 6—followed by intensified operations against Lebanon since April 7. A US-brokered ceasefire with Iran took effect April 7, yet Israel launched Operation Eternal Darkness with heavy strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon on April 8, killing hundreds amid Hezbollah clashes, and continued attacks as recently as April 15 despite historic direct Israel-Lebanon talks on April 14. The 38.5% on three reflects uncertainty over potential responses to Houthi missile launches from Yemen or Syrian border threats, while ≥4 at 8.5% underscores diplomatic de-escalation signals limiting broader expansion before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$101,404Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices two countries at 55% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iran—including the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant auxiliary and Mahshahr petrochemical zone on April 4, and South Pars facility on April 6—followed by intensified operations against Lebanon since April 7. A US-brokered ceasefire with Iran took effect April 7, yet Israel launched Operation Eternal Darkness with heavy strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon on April 8, killing hundreds amid Hezbollah clashes, and continued attacks as recently as April 15 despite historic direct Israel-Lebanon talks on April 14. The 38.5% on three reflects uncertainty over potential responses to Houthi missile launches from Yemen or Syrian border threats, while ≥4 at 8.5% underscores diplomatic de-escalation signals limiting broader expansion before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$101,404Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices two countries at 55% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iran—including the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant auxiliary and Mahshahr petrochemical zone on April 4, and South Pars facility on April 6—followed by intensified operations against Lebanon since April 7. A US-brokered ceasefire with Iran took effect April 7, yet Israel launched Operation Eternal Darkness with heavy strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon on April 8, killing hundreds amid Hezbollah clashes, and continued attacks as recently as April 15 despite historic direct Israel-Lebanon talks on April 14. The 38.5% on three reflects uncertainty over potential responses to Houthi missile launches from Yemen or Syrian border threats, while ≥4 at 8.5% underscores diplomatic de-escalation signals limiting broader expansion before month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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