Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security forces' effective suppression of widespread protests amid post-war economic collapse and US-Israeli airstrikes. Recent crackdowns—including mass arrests, internet shutdowns, and lethal force reported in late March and early April—have prevented uprisings from gaining momentum, echoing the regime's historical resilience against domestic unrest since 2022. With no verified signs of military defections or leadership vacuum as of mid-April, traders view the six-week timeline as insufficient for overthrow. Potential disruptors include uncontained protest escalation, elite defections, or intensified external military actions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà entro il 31 maggio?
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 31 maggio?
Sì
$1,391,361 Vol.
$1,391,361 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$1,391,361 Vol.
$1,391,361 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security forces' effective suppression of widespread protests amid post-war economic collapse and US-Israeli airstrikes. Recent crackdowns—including mass arrests, internet shutdowns, and lethal force reported in late March and early April—have prevented uprisings from gaining momentum, echoing the regime's historical resilience against domestic unrest since 2022. With no verified signs of military defections or leadership vacuum as of mid-April, traders view the six-week timeline as insufficient for overthrow. Potential disruptors include uncontained protest escalation, elite defections, or intensified external military actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volume
$1,391,361Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security forces' effective suppression of widespread protests amid post-war economic collapse and US-Israeli airstrikes. Recent crackdowns—including mass arrests, internet shutdowns, and lethal force reported in late March and early April—have prevented uprisings from gaining momentum, echoing the regime's historical resilience against domestic unrest since 2022. With no verified signs of military defections or leadership vacuum as of mid-April, traders view the six-week timeline as insufficient for overthrow. Potential disruptors include uncontained protest escalation, elite defections, or intensified external military actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,391,361Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security forces' effective suppression of widespread protests amid post-war economic collapse and US-Israeli airstrikes. Recent crackdowns—including mass arrests, internet shutdowns, and lethal force reported in late March and early April—have prevented uprisings from gaining momentum, echoing the regime's historical resilience against domestic unrest since 2022. With no verified signs of military defections or leadership vacuum as of mid-April, traders view the six-week timeline as insufficient for overthrow. Potential disruptors include uncontained protest escalation, elite defections, or intensified external military actions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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