Iran faces deepening internal divisions amid the ongoing 2026 war with the United States and Israel, triggered by the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Hardline factions have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and negotiators of a "soft coup" through U.S. truce talks, expanded authority for the Supreme National Security Council, and sidelining of parliament and revolutionary institutions while new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view. Rogue hardliner actions, including unauthorized July attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, derailed a June memorandum of understanding and prompted renewed exchanges of fire into September. These factional tensions, combined with U.S. calls for internal uprising and economic pressures, sustain trader focus on risks of coordinated military or security-led challenges to the government by year-end, though no such executed attempt has been widely confirmed in credible reporting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTentativo di colpo di stato in Iran da parte
Tentativo di colpo di stato in Iran da parte
$2,133,518 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre
10%
$2,133,518 Vol.
31 dicembre
$92,292 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran faces deepening internal divisions amid the ongoing 2026 war with the United States and Israel, triggered by the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Hardline factions have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and negotiators of a "soft coup" through U.S. truce talks, expanded authority for the Supreme National Security Council, and sidelining of parliament and revolutionary institutions while new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view. Rogue hardliner actions, including unauthorized July attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, derailed a June memorandum of understanding and prompted renewed exchanges of fire into September. These factional tensions, combined with U.S. calls for internal uprising and economic pressures, sustain trader focus on risks of coordinated military or security-led challenges to the government by year-end, though no such executed attempt has been widely confirmed in credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,133,518Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran faces deepening internal divisions amid the ongoing 2026 war with the United States and Israel, triggered by the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Hardline factions have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and negotiators of a "soft coup" through U.S. truce talks, expanded authority for the Supreme National Security Council, and sidelining of parliament and revolutionary institutions while new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view. Rogue hardliner actions, including unauthorized July attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, derailed a June memorandum of understanding and prompted renewed exchanges of fire into September. These factional tensions, combined with U.S. calls for internal uprising and economic pressures, sustain trader focus on risks of coordinated military or security-led challenges to the government by year-end, though no such executed attempt has been widely confirmed in credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,133,518Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Iran faces deepening internal divisions amid the ongoing 2026 war with the United States and Israel, triggered by the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Hardline factions have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and negotiators of a "soft coup" through U.S. truce talks, expanded authority for the Supreme National Security Council, and sidelining of parliament and revolutionary institutions while new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view. Rogue hardliner actions, including unauthorized July attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, derailed a June memorandum of understanding and prompted renewed exchanges of fire into September. These factional tensions, combined with U.S. calls for internal uprising and economic pressures, sustain trader focus on risks of coordinated military or security-led challenges to the government by year-end, though no such executed attempt has been widely confirmed in credible reporting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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