The Iranian regime’s post-war consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, installed in March 2026 following Ali Khamenei’s death during the February–April conflict with the United States and Israel, underpins trader expectations of stability through June 30. Coordinated military strikes on June 9–10 and diplomatic engagement with UAE officials on June 11 demonstrate unified command between political and IRGC leadership, with no reported elite defections, factional rifts, or renewed large-scale protests in recent weeks. Prior 2025–early 2026 demonstrations were suppressed, leaving security forces intact and internal opposition fragmented. A sudden leadership challenge or unforeseen external shock remains possible but appears remote given the regime’s demonstrated resilience and centralized control.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,836,015 Vol.
$1,836,015 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$1,836,015 Vol.
$1,836,015 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime’s post-war consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, installed in March 2026 following Ali Khamenei’s death during the February–April conflict with the United States and Israel, underpins trader expectations of stability through June 30. Coordinated military strikes on June 9–10 and diplomatic engagement with UAE officials on June 11 demonstrate unified command between political and IRGC leadership, with no reported elite defections, factional rifts, or renewed large-scale protests in recent weeks. Prior 2025–early 2026 demonstrations were suppressed, leaving security forces intact and internal opposition fragmented. A sudden leadership challenge or unforeseen external shock remains possible but appears remote given the regime’s demonstrated resilience and centralized control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,836,015Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime’s post-war consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, installed in March 2026 following Ali Khamenei’s death during the February–April conflict with the United States and Israel, underpins trader expectations of stability through June 30. Coordinated military strikes on June 9–10 and diplomatic engagement with UAE officials on June 11 demonstrate unified command between political and IRGC leadership, with no reported elite defections, factional rifts, or renewed large-scale protests in recent weeks. Prior 2025–early 2026 demonstrations were suppressed, leaving security forces intact and internal opposition fragmented. A sudden leadership challenge or unforeseen external shock remains possible but appears remote given the regime’s demonstrated resilience and centralized control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,836,015Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s post-war consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, installed in March 2026 following Ali Khamenei’s death during the February–April conflict with the United States and Israel, underpins trader expectations of stability through June 30. Coordinated military strikes on June 9–10 and diplomatic engagement with UAE officials on June 11 demonstrate unified command between political and IRGC leadership, with no reported elite defections, factional rifts, or renewed large-scale protests in recent weeks. Prior 2025–early 2026 demonstrations were suppressed, leaving security forces intact and internal opposition fragmented. A sudden leadership challenge or unforeseen external shock remains possible but appears remote given the regime’s demonstrated resilience and centralized control.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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