Iran’s political and military leadership has consolidated following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with power shifting toward Revolutionary Guard commanders and security institutions under interim structures led by figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and Ali Larijani. An April 2026 ceasefire mediated by Pakistan further reduced external pressures that previously amplified internal dissent. Recent reporting shows continued crackdowns on opposition and no verified signs of coordinated military or factional moves against the current authorities in the weeks leading to the June 30 deadline. Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no coup attempt occurring, reflecting this post-conflict stabilization. A rapid breakdown in the ceasefire, sudden elite defections, or large-scale protests could still shift conditions before month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,774,619 Vol.
$1,774,619 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$1,774,619 Vol.
$1,774,619 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s political and military leadership has consolidated following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with power shifting toward Revolutionary Guard commanders and security institutions under interim structures led by figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and Ali Larijani. An April 2026 ceasefire mediated by Pakistan further reduced external pressures that previously amplified internal dissent. Recent reporting shows continued crackdowns on opposition and no verified signs of coordinated military or factional moves against the current authorities in the weeks leading to the June 30 deadline. Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no coup attempt occurring, reflecting this post-conflict stabilization. A rapid breakdown in the ceasefire, sudden elite defections, or large-scale protests could still shift conditions before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,774,619Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s political and military leadership has consolidated following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with power shifting toward Revolutionary Guard commanders and security institutions under interim structures led by figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and Ali Larijani. An April 2026 ceasefire mediated by Pakistan further reduced external pressures that previously amplified internal dissent. Recent reporting shows continued crackdowns on opposition and no verified signs of coordinated military or factional moves against the current authorities in the weeks leading to the June 30 deadline. Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no coup attempt occurring, reflecting this post-conflict stabilization. A rapid breakdown in the ceasefire, sudden elite defections, or large-scale protests could still shift conditions before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,774,624Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s political and military leadership has consolidated following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with power shifting toward Revolutionary Guard commanders and security institutions under interim structures led by figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and Ali Larijani. An April 2026 ceasefire mediated by Pakistan further reduced external pressures that previously amplified internal dissent. Recent reporting shows continued crackdowns on opposition and no verified signs of coordinated military or factional moves against the current authorities in the weeks leading to the June 30 deadline. Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no coup attempt occurring, reflecting this post-conflict stabilization. A rapid breakdown in the ceasefire, sudden elite defections, or large-scale protests could still shift conditions before month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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