Iran’s post-2026 war leadership transition, including Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as supreme leader and expanded IRGC influence after the February conflict and April ceasefire, has consolidated control over security forces and decision-making. Recent verifiable actions, such as coordinated strikes on June 9–10 and diplomatic talks with UAE officials on June 11, reflect the regime’s continued operational cohesion without major factional splits, defections, or widespread protests in recent weeks. Traders reflect this stability in pricing a coup attempt by June 30 at roughly 1.6 percent. A sudden elite fracture or unanticipated external shock within the narrow remaining window remains the primary path that could still shift the assessment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,786,981 Vol.
$1,786,981 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$1,786,981 Vol.
$1,786,981 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-2026 war leadership transition, including Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as supreme leader and expanded IRGC influence after the February conflict and April ceasefire, has consolidated control over security forces and decision-making. Recent verifiable actions, such as coordinated strikes on June 9–10 and diplomatic talks with UAE officials on June 11, reflect the regime’s continued operational cohesion without major factional splits, defections, or widespread protests in recent weeks. Traders reflect this stability in pricing a coup attempt by June 30 at roughly 1.6 percent. A sudden elite fracture or unanticipated external shock within the narrow remaining window remains the primary path that could still shift the assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,786,981Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-2026 war leadership transition, including Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as supreme leader and expanded IRGC influence after the February conflict and April ceasefire, has consolidated control over security forces and decision-making. Recent verifiable actions, such as coordinated strikes on June 9–10 and diplomatic talks with UAE officials on June 11, reflect the regime’s continued operational cohesion without major factional splits, defections, or widespread protests in recent weeks. Traders reflect this stability in pricing a coup attempt by June 30 at roughly 1.6 percent. A sudden elite fracture or unanticipated external shock within the narrow remaining window remains the primary path that could still shift the assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,786,981Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-2026 war leadership transition, including Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as supreme leader and expanded IRGC influence after the February conflict and April ceasefire, has consolidated control over security forces and decision-making. Recent verifiable actions, such as coordinated strikes on June 9–10 and diplomatic talks with UAE officials on June 11, reflect the regime’s continued operational cohesion without major factional splits, defections, or widespread protests in recent weeks. Traders reflect this stability in pricing a coup attempt by June 30 at roughly 1.6 percent. A sudden elite fracture or unanticipated external shock within the narrow remaining window remains the primary path that could still shift the assessment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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