**The regime’s demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes and the swift succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader underpins the 98% trader consensus against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30.** The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated authority through rapid appointments to security and interim leadership posts while suppressing earlier protest waves without reported defections in the military or political elite. Ongoing economic pressures and diplomatic negotiations over ceasefires and the Strait of Hormuz have not produced visible fractures in core institutions. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden internal power struggles among hard-line factions or an unexpected external escalation that exposes leadership divisions, though no such developments have materialized in the immediate pre-resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,774,619 Vol.
$1,774,619 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$1,774,619 Vol.
$1,774,619 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The regime’s demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes and the swift succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader underpins the 98% trader consensus against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30.** The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated authority through rapid appointments to security and interim leadership posts while suppressing earlier protest waves without reported defections in the military or political elite. Ongoing economic pressures and diplomatic negotiations over ceasefires and the Strait of Hormuz have not produced visible fractures in core institutions. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden internal power struggles among hard-line factions or an unexpected external escalation that exposes leadership divisions, though no such developments have materialized in the immediate pre-resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,774,619Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The regime’s demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes and the swift succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader underpins the 98% trader consensus against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30.** The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated authority through rapid appointments to security and interim leadership posts while suppressing earlier protest waves without reported defections in the military or political elite. Ongoing economic pressures and diplomatic negotiations over ceasefires and the Strait of Hormuz have not produced visible fractures in core institutions. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden internal power struggles among hard-line factions or an unexpected external escalation that exposes leadership divisions, though no such developments have materialized in the immediate pre-resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,774,619Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The regime’s demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes and the swift succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader underpins the 98% trader consensus against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30.** The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated authority through rapid appointments to security and interim leadership posts while suppressing earlier protest waves without reported defections in the military or political elite. Ongoing economic pressures and diplomatic negotiations over ceasefires and the Strait of Hormuz have not produced visible fractures in core institutions. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden internal power struggles among hard-line factions or an unexpected external escalation that exposes leadership divisions, though no such developments have materialized in the immediate pre-resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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