Traders assign a 98.4% probability against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30 due to the regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict that began in February. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered an orderly interim leadership council and transition process toward Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC elements under commanders like Ahmad Vahidi consolidating influence amid internal factional jockeying. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a June 14 memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have shifted focus to diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Earlier 2026 rumors of attempts by figures like Hassan Rouhani failed to materialize into sustained challenges. With only two weeks remaining and no verified recent plots or mass unrest reported, the market reflects the absence of credible catalysts for a rapid overthrow effort before the resolution window closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,786,981 Vol.
$1,786,981 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$1,786,981 Vol.
$1,786,981 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 98.4% probability against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30 due to the regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict that began in February. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered an orderly interim leadership council and transition process toward Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC elements under commanders like Ahmad Vahidi consolidating influence amid internal factional jockeying. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a June 14 memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have shifted focus to diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Earlier 2026 rumors of attempts by figures like Hassan Rouhani failed to materialize into sustained challenges. With only two weeks remaining and no verified recent plots or mass unrest reported, the market reflects the absence of credible catalysts for a rapid overthrow effort before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,786,981Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 98.4% probability against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30 due to the regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict that began in February. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered an orderly interim leadership council and transition process toward Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC elements under commanders like Ahmad Vahidi consolidating influence amid internal factional jockeying. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a June 14 memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have shifted focus to diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Earlier 2026 rumors of attempts by figures like Hassan Rouhani failed to materialize into sustained challenges. With only two weeks remaining and no verified recent plots or mass unrest reported, the market reflects the absence of credible catalysts for a rapid overthrow effort before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,786,981Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.4% probability against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30 due to the regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict that began in February. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered an orderly interim leadership council and transition process toward Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC elements under commanders like Ahmad Vahidi consolidating influence amid internal factional jockeying. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a June 14 memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have shifted focus to diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Earlier 2026 rumors of attempts by figures like Hassan Rouhani failed to materialize into sustained challenges. With only two weeks remaining and no verified recent plots or mass unrest reported, the market reflects the absence of credible catalysts for a rapid overthrow effort before the resolution window closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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