**Internal factional tensions within Iran's leadership amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war and the absence of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei have fueled trader focus on potential coup scenarios.** Hardline groups, including the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining the supreme leader's office and parliament, and pursuing negotiations with the United States. These claims intensified around July 2026 during Ali Khamenei's funeral. Recent reports from mid-September detail rogue hardline actions, such as unauthorized strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, that undermined a June truce and highlighted splits between pragmatists and IRGC-aligned elements. Speculation about IRGC commanders seeking greater control persists due to economic strain, wartime damage, and the new leader's limited public role, though no overt military takeover has occurred. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could shift these dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTentativo di colpo di stato in Iran da parte
Tentativo di colpo di stato in Iran da parte
$2,134,699 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre
8%
$2,134,699 Vol.
31 dicembre
$93,473 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal factional tensions within Iran's leadership amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war and the absence of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei have fueled trader focus on potential coup scenarios.** Hardline groups, including the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining the supreme leader's office and parliament, and pursuing negotiations with the United States. These claims intensified around July 2026 during Ali Khamenei's funeral. Recent reports from mid-September detail rogue hardline actions, such as unauthorized strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, that undermined a June truce and highlighted splits between pragmatists and IRGC-aligned elements. Speculation about IRGC commanders seeking greater control persists due to economic strain, wartime damage, and the new leader's limited public role, though no overt military takeover has occurred. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could shift these dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,134,699Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal factional tensions within Iran's leadership amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war and the absence of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei have fueled trader focus on potential coup scenarios.** Hardline groups, including the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining the supreme leader's office and parliament, and pursuing negotiations with the United States. These claims intensified around July 2026 during Ali Khamenei's funeral. Recent reports from mid-September detail rogue hardline actions, such as unauthorized strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, that undermined a June truce and highlighted splits between pragmatists and IRGC-aligned elements. Speculation about IRGC commanders seeking greater control persists due to economic strain, wartime damage, and the new leader's limited public role, though no overt military takeover has occurred. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could shift these dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,134,699Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Internal factional tensions within Iran's leadership amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war and the absence of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei have fueled trader focus on potential coup scenarios.** Hardline groups, including the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining the supreme leader's office and parliament, and pursuing negotiations with the United States. These claims intensified around July 2026 during Ali Khamenei's funeral. Recent reports from mid-September detail rogue hardline actions, such as unauthorized strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, that undermined a June truce and highlighted splits between pragmatists and IRGC-aligned elements. Speculation about IRGC commanders seeking greater control persists due to economic strain, wartime damage, and the new leader's limited public role, though no overt military takeover has occurred. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could shift these dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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