Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting a March leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei amid IRGC shifts and internal power struggles. In July, hardline lawmakers publicly accused pragmatic officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of plotting a "soft coup" or internal challenge during fragile U.S. truce talks and sanctions relief negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. These factional accusations, set against lingering effects of military strikes on decision-making structures, have kept attention on stability risks. No widely reported coup attempt has materialized, sustaining trader consensus around low implied probability for resolution by year-end. Scheduled diplomatic talks or renewed hostilities remain the main near-term variables that could alter internal dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$2,114,263 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre
11%
$2,114,263 Vol.
31 dicembre
$73,038 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting a March leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei amid IRGC shifts and internal power struggles. In July, hardline lawmakers publicly accused pragmatic officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of plotting a "soft coup" or internal challenge during fragile U.S. truce talks and sanctions relief negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. These factional accusations, set against lingering effects of military strikes on decision-making structures, have kept attention on stability risks. No widely reported coup attempt has materialized, sustaining trader consensus around low implied probability for resolution by year-end. Scheduled diplomatic talks or renewed hostilities remain the main near-term variables that could alter internal dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,114,263Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting a March leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei amid IRGC shifts and internal power struggles. In July, hardline lawmakers publicly accused pragmatic officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of plotting a "soft coup" or internal challenge during fragile U.S. truce talks and sanctions relief negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. These factional accusations, set against lingering effects of military strikes on decision-making structures, have kept attention on stability risks. No widely reported coup attempt has materialized, sustaining trader consensus around low implied probability for resolution by year-end. Scheduled diplomatic talks or renewed hostilities remain the main near-term variables that could alter internal dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,114,263Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting a March leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei amid IRGC shifts and internal power struggles. In July, hardline lawmakers publicly accused pragmatic officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of plotting a "soft coup" or internal challenge during fragile U.S. truce talks and sanctions relief negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. These factional accusations, set against lingering effects of military strikes on decision-making structures, have kept attention on stability risks. No widely reported coup attempt has materialized, sustaining trader consensus around low implied probability for resolution by year-end. Scheduled diplomatic talks or renewed hostilities remain the main near-term variables that could alter internal dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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