Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges of the People’s Liberation Army, including the 2026 removal of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have reinforced centralized party control and political loyalty across military leadership. Multiple rounds of investigations since 2023 have removed over 100 senior officers, leaving the CMC with minimal active members aligned against Xi. Persistent rumors of coups or leadership challenges, including those circulating in early 2026, have lacked confirmation from credible independent sources and appear driven by unverified overseas accounts. This pattern of elite discipline, combined with the absence of organized dissent or visible fractures ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, underpins the 96% trader-implied probability of no coup attempt through 2026. Unforeseen events such as acute health crises or sudden elite realignments remain the primary, though remote, variables that could alter outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
4% probabilità
$155,283 Vol.
$155,283 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$155,283 Vol.
$155,283 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges of the People’s Liberation Army, including the 2026 removal of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have reinforced centralized party control and political loyalty across military leadership. Multiple rounds of investigations since 2023 have removed over 100 senior officers, leaving the CMC with minimal active members aligned against Xi. Persistent rumors of coups or leadership challenges, including those circulating in early 2026, have lacked confirmation from credible independent sources and appear driven by unverified overseas accounts. This pattern of elite discipline, combined with the absence of organized dissent or visible fractures ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, underpins the 96% trader-implied probability of no coup attempt through 2026. Unforeseen events such as acute health crises or sudden elite realignments remain the primary, though remote, variables that could alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$155,283Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges of the People’s Liberation Army, including the 2026 removal of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have reinforced centralized party control and political loyalty across military leadership. Multiple rounds of investigations since 2023 have removed over 100 senior officers, leaving the CMC with minimal active members aligned against Xi. Persistent rumors of coups or leadership challenges, including those circulating in early 2026, have lacked confirmation from credible independent sources and appear driven by unverified overseas accounts. This pattern of elite discipline, combined with the absence of organized dissent or visible fractures ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, underpins the 96% trader-implied probability of no coup attempt through 2026. Unforeseen events such as acute health crises or sudden elite realignments remain the primary, though remote, variables that could alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$155,283Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges of the People’s Liberation Army, including the 2026 removal of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have reinforced centralized party control and political loyalty across military leadership. Multiple rounds of investigations since 2023 have removed over 100 senior officers, leaving the CMC with minimal active members aligned against Xi. Persistent rumors of coups or leadership challenges, including those circulating in early 2026, have lacked confirmation from credible independent sources and appear driven by unverified overseas accounts. This pattern of elite discipline, combined with the absence of organized dissent or visible fractures ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, underpins the 96% trader-implied probability of no coup attempt through 2026. Unforeseen events such as acute health crises or sudden elite realignments remain the primary, though remote, variables that could alter outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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