Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.2% implied probability of no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by the absence of any verified political instability or military disruptions in recent months. Xi Jinping's sweeping purges of top People's Liberation Army (PLA) generals in January 2026—including dismissals over alleged nuclear secrets leaks to the US—prompted unsubstantiated rumors of power struggles or preemptive anti-coup actions, but official statements emphasized deepened political rectification and loyalty enforcement without evidence of challenges to central authority. No major developments, such as troop movements, elite defections, or public dissent, have emerged since, underscoring Xi's consolidated control ahead of the 2027 Communist Party Congress. Late-breaking scandals or economic shocks could theoretically shift dynamics, though structural barriers to coups remain high.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$118,785 Vol.
$118,785 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$118,785 Vol.
$118,785 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.2% implied probability of no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by the absence of any verified political instability or military disruptions in recent months. Xi Jinping's sweeping purges of top People's Liberation Army (PLA) generals in January 2026—including dismissals over alleged nuclear secrets leaks to the US—prompted unsubstantiated rumors of power struggles or preemptive anti-coup actions, but official statements emphasized deepened political rectification and loyalty enforcement without evidence of challenges to central authority. No major developments, such as troop movements, elite defections, or public dissent, have emerged since, underscoring Xi's consolidated control ahead of the 2027 Communist Party Congress. Late-breaking scandals or economic shocks could theoretically shift dynamics, though structural barriers to coups remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$118,785Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.2% implied probability of no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by the absence of any verified political instability or military disruptions in recent months. Xi Jinping's sweeping purges of top People's Liberation Army (PLA) generals in January 2026—including dismissals over alleged nuclear secrets leaks to the US—prompted unsubstantiated rumors of power struggles or preemptive anti-coup actions, but official statements emphasized deepened political rectification and loyalty enforcement without evidence of challenges to central authority. No major developments, such as troop movements, elite defections, or public dissent, have emerged since, underscoring Xi's consolidated control ahead of the 2027 Communist Party Congress. Late-breaking scandals or economic shocks could theoretically shift dynamics, though structural barriers to coups remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$118,785Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.2% implied probability of no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by the absence of any verified political instability or military disruptions in recent months. Xi Jinping's sweeping purges of top People's Liberation Army (PLA) generals in January 2026—including dismissals over alleged nuclear secrets leaks to the US—prompted unsubstantiated rumors of power struggles or preemptive anti-coup actions, but official statements emphasized deepened political rectification and loyalty enforcement without evidence of challenges to central authority. No major developments, such as troop movements, elite defections, or public dissent, have emerged since, underscoring Xi's consolidated control ahead of the 2027 Communist Party Congress. Late-breaking scandals or economic shocks could theoretically shift dynamics, though structural barriers to coups remain high.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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