China's centralized political system under Xi Jinping features extensive party control over the military, security apparatus, and elite networks, with no verifiable signs of organized dissent or power struggles emerging in recent months. This institutional structure, reinforced by purges of potential rivals and pervasive surveillance, underpins the 96.4% trader consensus on "No" for a coup attempt before 2027. Historical precedent shows successful challenges to CCP leadership are rare and typically resolved internally without public attempts. While abrupt developments such as leadership health crises or severe economic shocks could theoretically create openings for elite fractures, current conditions offer few indicators of such shifts, aligning with the market's assessment of regime stability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$132,152 Vol.
$132,152 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$132,152 Vol.
$132,152 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.China's centralized political system under Xi Jinping features extensive party control over the military, security apparatus, and elite networks, with no verifiable signs of organized dissent or power struggles emerging in recent months. This institutional structure, reinforced by purges of potential rivals and pervasive surveillance, underpins the 96.4% trader consensus on "No" for a coup attempt before 2027. Historical precedent shows successful challenges to CCP leadership are rare and typically resolved internally without public attempts. While abrupt developments such as leadership health crises or severe economic shocks could theoretically create openings for elite fractures, current conditions offer few indicators of such shifts, aligning with the market's assessment of regime stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$132,152Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.China's centralized political system under Xi Jinping features extensive party control over the military, security apparatus, and elite networks, with no verifiable signs of organized dissent or power struggles emerging in recent months. This institutional structure, reinforced by purges of potential rivals and pervasive surveillance, underpins the 96.4% trader consensus on "No" for a coup attempt before 2027. Historical precedent shows successful challenges to CCP leadership are rare and typically resolved internally without public attempts. While abrupt developments such as leadership health crises or severe economic shocks could theoretically create openings for elite fractures, current conditions offer few indicators of such shifts, aligning with the market's assessment of regime stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$132,152Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China's centralized political system under Xi Jinping features extensive party control over the military, security apparatus, and elite networks, with no verifiable signs of organized dissent or power struggles emerging in recent months. This institutional structure, reinforced by purges of potential rivals and pervasive surveillance, underpins the 96.4% trader consensus on "No" for a coup attempt before 2027. Historical precedent shows successful challenges to CCP leadership are rare and typically resolved internally without public attempts. While abrupt developments such as leadership health crises or severe economic shocks could theoretically create openings for elite fractures, current conditions offer few indicators of such shifts, aligning with the market's assessment of regime stability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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