Iranian Kurdish opposition groups formed a coalition in February 2026 focused on regime change and self-determination within Iranian Kurdistan, amid ongoing protests and limited armed activity, yet no formal declaration of an independent state has occurred. Iranian security forces maintain control over Kurdish-majority areas, while neighboring governments and international actors oppose secession that could destabilize borders or trigger wider conflict. The market resolves only on an explicit assertion of sovereignty by recognized Kurdish organizations before the June 30, 2026 deadline. Trader consensus at 97.9% for No reflects these structural barriers and the absence of recent triggers sufficient to overcome them. A rapid regime collapse enabling a unilateral declaration by groups such as the PDKI or PJAK remains a low-probability scenario that could still shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoI curdi dichiarano l'indipendenza dall'Iran?
I curdi dichiarano l'indipendenza dall'Iran?
Sì
$144,382 Vol.
$144,382 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$144,382 Vol.
$144,382 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian Kurdish opposition groups formed a coalition in February 2026 focused on regime change and self-determination within Iranian Kurdistan, amid ongoing protests and limited armed activity, yet no formal declaration of an independent state has occurred. Iranian security forces maintain control over Kurdish-majority areas, while neighboring governments and international actors oppose secession that could destabilize borders or trigger wider conflict. The market resolves only on an explicit assertion of sovereignty by recognized Kurdish organizations before the June 30, 2026 deadline. Trader consensus at 97.9% for No reflects these structural barriers and the absence of recent triggers sufficient to overcome them. A rapid regime collapse enabling a unilateral declaration by groups such as the PDKI or PJAK remains a low-probability scenario that could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Volume
$144,382Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian Kurdish opposition groups formed a coalition in February 2026 focused on regime change and self-determination within Iranian Kurdistan, amid ongoing protests and limited armed activity, yet no formal declaration of an independent state has occurred. Iranian security forces maintain control over Kurdish-majority areas, while neighboring governments and international actors oppose secession that could destabilize borders or trigger wider conflict. The market resolves only on an explicit assertion of sovereignty by recognized Kurdish organizations before the June 30, 2026 deadline. Trader consensus at 97.9% for No reflects these structural barriers and the absence of recent triggers sufficient to overcome them. A rapid regime collapse enabling a unilateral declaration by groups such as the PDKI or PJAK remains a low-probability scenario that could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$144,382Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian Kurdish opposition groups formed a coalition in February 2026 focused on regime change and self-determination within Iranian Kurdistan, amid ongoing protests and limited armed activity, yet no formal declaration of an independent state has occurred. Iranian security forces maintain control over Kurdish-majority areas, while neighboring governments and international actors oppose secession that could destabilize borders or trigger wider conflict. The market resolves only on an explicit assertion of sovereignty by recognized Kurdish organizations before the June 30, 2026 deadline. Trader consensus at 97.9% for No reflects these structural barriers and the absence of recent triggers sufficient to overcome them. A rapid regime collapse enabling a unilateral declaration by groups such as the PDKI or PJAK remains a low-probability scenario that could still shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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