Persistent absence of formal diplomatic relations, with the US continuing to rely on Swiss protecting-power arrangements for consular functions, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against embassy reopening in 2026. Recent US-Iran negotiations produced the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum halting hostilities with Israel and addressing the Strait of Hormuz, followed by technical talks, yet these steps have not advanced toward sanctions relief, nuclear resolution, or bilateral normalization. Ongoing economic pressure, intermittent enforcement disputes through July, and unresolved regional security concerns reinforce market expectations of continuity. A comprehensive peace framework or major policy adjustment by either government before December 31 could still shift probabilities, though structural barriers make such developments unlikely within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?
Gli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?
Sì
$155,538 Vol.
$155,538 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$155,538 Vol.
$155,538 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent absence of formal diplomatic relations, with the US continuing to rely on Swiss protecting-power arrangements for consular functions, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against embassy reopening in 2026. Recent US-Iran negotiations produced the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum halting hostilities with Israel and addressing the Strait of Hormuz, followed by technical talks, yet these steps have not advanced toward sanctions relief, nuclear resolution, or bilateral normalization. Ongoing economic pressure, intermittent enforcement disputes through July, and unresolved regional security concerns reinforce market expectations of continuity. A comprehensive peace framework or major policy adjustment by either government before December 31 could still shift probabilities, though structural barriers make such developments unlikely within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volume
$155,538Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent absence of formal diplomatic relations, with the US continuing to rely on Swiss protecting-power arrangements for consular functions, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against embassy reopening in 2026. Recent US-Iran negotiations produced the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum halting hostilities with Israel and addressing the Strait of Hormuz, followed by technical talks, yet these steps have not advanced toward sanctions relief, nuclear resolution, or bilateral normalization. Ongoing economic pressure, intermittent enforcement disputes through July, and unresolved regional security concerns reinforce market expectations of continuity. A comprehensive peace framework or major policy adjustment by either government before December 31 could still shift probabilities, though structural barriers make such developments unlikely within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$155,538Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent absence of formal diplomatic relations, with the US continuing to rely on Swiss protecting-power arrangements for consular functions, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against embassy reopening in 2026. Recent US-Iran negotiations produced the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum halting hostilities with Israel and addressing the Strait of Hormuz, followed by technical talks, yet these steps have not advanced toward sanctions relief, nuclear resolution, or bilateral normalization. Ongoing economic pressure, intermittent enforcement disputes through July, and unresolved regional security concerns reinforce market expectations of continuity. A comprehensive peace framework or major policy adjustment by either government before December 31 could still shift probabilities, though structural barriers make such developments unlikely within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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