Persistent absence of formal diplomatic relations since 1979, compounded by the 2026 US-Iran conflict and subsequent collapse of interim agreements, underpins trader expectations that the United States will not reopen its embassy in Iran this year. Recent indirect contacts at the UN General Assembly center on sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz access rather than embassy restoration, while the State Department maintains a Level 4 travel advisory and relies on Switzerland as protecting power. US personnel returns to other regional posts reflect de-escalation elsewhere but exclude Iran amid ongoing economic pressure and security concerns. Full normalization would require sustained bilateral breakthroughs exceeding current mediation efforts.