**Recent US and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's uranium enrichment facilities, centrifuges, and related infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering much of the program inoperable or dormant.** Over 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium remains largely buried under rubble and unaccounted for by the IAEA, with no verified resumption of enrichment activities. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework calling for IAEA inspections, down-blending of highly enriched uranium under supervision, and negotiations toward a final agreement, but talks have stalled over access to damaged sites and verification modalities. US intelligence assessments indicate Iran's timeline for producing weapons-grade material has not shortened and likely remains extended due to the physical setbacks, with no evidence of weaponization progress in the short term. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction or vehicle activity at some undeclared locations like Pickaxe Mountain, yet broader nonproliferation reporting confirms the program faces significant barriers to rapid breakout. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.6% implied probability against Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027.