Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling operating centrifuges and pushing U.S. intelligence estimates of Iran's breakout timeline to nine to twelve months or longer. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a proposed 60-day ceasefire extension, center on securing Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and preventing any resumption of enrichment activities. Iranian officials have rejected transfers of the material abroad while seeking sanctions relief first, and no verified reconstruction or renewed enrichment has occurred. These developments sustain trader consensus that Iran will not produce a nuclear weapon before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$624,840 Vol.
$624,840 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$624,840 Vol.
$624,840 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling operating centrifuges and pushing U.S. intelligence estimates of Iran's breakout timeline to nine to twelve months or longer. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a proposed 60-day ceasefire extension, center on securing Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and preventing any resumption of enrichment activities. Iranian officials have rejected transfers of the material abroad while seeking sanctions relief first, and no verified reconstruction or renewed enrichment has occurred. These developments sustain trader consensus that Iran will not produce a nuclear weapon before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$624,840Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling operating centrifuges and pushing U.S. intelligence estimates of Iran's breakout timeline to nine to twelve months or longer. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a proposed 60-day ceasefire extension, center on securing Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and preventing any resumption of enrichment activities. Iranian officials have rejected transfers of the material abroad while seeking sanctions relief first, and no verified reconstruction or renewed enrichment has occurred. These developments sustain trader consensus that Iran will not produce a nuclear weapon before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$624,840Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling operating centrifuges and pushing U.S. intelligence estimates of Iran's breakout timeline to nine to twelve months or longer. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a proposed 60-day ceasefire extension, center on securing Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and preventing any resumption of enrichment activities. Iranian officials have rejected transfers of the material abroad while seeking sanctions relief first, and no verified reconstruction or renewed enrichment has occurred. These developments sustain trader consensus that Iran will not produce a nuclear weapon before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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