Iran remains an NPT signatory amid ongoing IAEA monitoring and diplomatic engagement, with recent U.S.-Iran understandings in June 2026 enabling resumed inspections at key sites and technical talks in Vienna. Parliamentary threats and draft withdrawal bills surfaced in 2025 following IAEA censures and European snapback sanctions, yet these measures stalled as Tehran coordinated with the agency and pursued de-escalation. A June 2026 IAEA Board resolution urged cooperation without triggering exit, while officials reaffirmed no intent to pursue weapons. With active diplomacy, verification access, and no formal parliamentary vote or official notification to the UN, traders assess withdrawal before 2027 as improbable absent major escalation in sanctions or strikes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
L'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
Sì
15% probabilità
$381,183 Vol.
$381,183 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
15% probabilità
$381,183 Vol.
$381,183 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran remains an NPT signatory amid ongoing IAEA monitoring and diplomatic engagement, with recent U.S.-Iran understandings in June 2026 enabling resumed inspections at key sites and technical talks in Vienna. Parliamentary threats and draft withdrawal bills surfaced in 2025 following IAEA censures and European snapback sanctions, yet these measures stalled as Tehran coordinated with the agency and pursued de-escalation. A June 2026 IAEA Board resolution urged cooperation without triggering exit, while officials reaffirmed no intent to pursue weapons. With active diplomacy, verification access, and no formal parliamentary vote or official notification to the UN, traders assess withdrawal before 2027 as improbable absent major escalation in sanctions or strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$381,183Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran remains an NPT signatory amid ongoing IAEA monitoring and diplomatic engagement, with recent U.S.-Iran understandings in June 2026 enabling resumed inspections at key sites and technical talks in Vienna. Parliamentary threats and draft withdrawal bills surfaced in 2025 following IAEA censures and European snapback sanctions, yet these measures stalled as Tehran coordinated with the agency and pursued de-escalation. A June 2026 IAEA Board resolution urged cooperation without triggering exit, while officials reaffirmed no intent to pursue weapons. With active diplomacy, verification access, and no formal parliamentary vote or official notification to the UN, traders assess withdrawal before 2027 as improbable absent major escalation in sanctions or strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$381,183Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran remains an NPT signatory amid ongoing IAEA monitoring and diplomatic engagement, with recent U.S.-Iran understandings in June 2026 enabling resumed inspections at key sites and technical talks in Vienna. Parliamentary threats and draft withdrawal bills surfaced in 2025 following IAEA censures and European snapback sanctions, yet these measures stalled as Tehran coordinated with the agency and pursued de-escalation. A June 2026 IAEA Board resolution urged cooperation without triggering exit, while officials reaffirmed no intent to pursue weapons. With active diplomacy, verification access, and no formal parliamentary vote or official notification to the UN, traders assess withdrawal before 2027 as improbable absent major escalation in sanctions or strikes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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