Despite Iranian lawmakers' late-March 2026 push to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) amid US-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and steel plants—framing inspections as enabling espionage—no formal legislation or official announcement has followed, anchoring trader consensus at 85% against exit before 2027. Parliamentary deliberations via Tasnim News and calls from figures like Javad Larijani highlighted frustrations, yet strategic barriers including potential UN sanctions, reliance on China-Russia support, and ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks (with no set date as of April 15) deter action. IAEA safeguards reports note non-compliance on damaged facilities but affirm Iran's NPT status, while historical threats since 2004 have rarely materialized absent existential crisis. Escalation in military actions or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
L'Iran si ritirerà dal TNP prima del 2027?
Sì
$109,216 Vol.
$109,216 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$109,216 Vol.
$109,216 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite Iranian lawmakers' late-March 2026 push to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) amid US-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and steel plants—framing inspections as enabling espionage—no formal legislation or official announcement has followed, anchoring trader consensus at 85% against exit before 2027. Parliamentary deliberations via Tasnim News and calls from figures like Javad Larijani highlighted frustrations, yet strategic barriers including potential UN sanctions, reliance on China-Russia support, and ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks (with no set date as of April 15) deter action. IAEA safeguards reports note non-compliance on damaged facilities but affirm Iran's NPT status, while historical threats since 2004 have rarely materialized absent existential crisis. Escalation in military actions or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$109,216Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite Iranian lawmakers' late-March 2026 push to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) amid US-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and steel plants—framing inspections as enabling espionage—no formal legislation or official announcement has followed, anchoring trader consensus at 85% against exit before 2027. Parliamentary deliberations via Tasnim News and calls from figures like Javad Larijani highlighted frustrations, yet strategic barriers including potential UN sanctions, reliance on China-Russia support, and ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks (with no set date as of April 15) deter action. IAEA safeguards reports note non-compliance on damaged facilities but affirm Iran's NPT status, while historical threats since 2004 have rarely materialized absent existential crisis. Escalation in military actions or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$109,216Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite Iranian lawmakers' late-March 2026 push to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) amid US-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and steel plants—framing inspections as enabling espionage—no formal legislation or official announcement has followed, anchoring trader consensus at 85% against exit before 2027. Parliamentary deliberations via Tasnim News and calls from figures like Javad Larijani highlighted frustrations, yet strategic barriers including potential UN sanctions, reliance on China-Russia support, and ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks (with no set date as of April 15) deter action. IAEA safeguards reports note non-compliance on damaged facilities but affirm Iran's NPT status, while historical threats since 2004 have rarely materialized absent existential crisis. Escalation in military actions or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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