Polymarket traders price a 95.7% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April 29 Copom meeting, driven by the committee's March 18 initiation of an easing cycle with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first since May 2024—amid still-elevated real rates exceeding 10% despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year. This consensus reflects forward-looking trader sentiment backed by real capital, anchored in the Focus poll's end-2026 Selic projection near 12.4% and expectations of disinflation convergence to the 3% target midpoint. Hawkish risks from energy shocks or the latest Focus upward revision to 4.71% 2026 IPCA could prompt a pause, though current positioning assumes steady 25 basis point trimming.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecrease 96.1%
No Change 3.3%
Increase <1%
$268,457 Vol.
$268,457 Vol.
28 apr 2026
Increase
1%
No Change
3%
Decrease
96%
Decrease 96.1%
No Change 3.3%
Increase <1%
$268,457 Vol.
$268,457 Vol.
28 apr 2026
Increase
$142,526 Vol.
1%
No Change
$61,376 Vol.
3%
Decrease
$64,554 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 95.7% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April 29 Copom meeting, driven by the committee's March 18 initiation of an easing cycle with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first since May 2024—amid still-elevated real rates exceeding 10% despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year. This consensus reflects forward-looking trader sentiment backed by real capital, anchored in the Focus poll's end-2026 Selic projection near 12.4% and expectations of disinflation convergence to the 3% target midpoint. Hawkish risks from energy shocks or the latest Focus upward revision to 4.71% 2026 IPCA could prompt a pause, though current positioning assumes steady 25 basis point trimming.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Volume
$268,457Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 95.7% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April 29 Copom meeting, driven by the committee's March 18 initiation of an easing cycle with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first since May 2024—amid still-elevated real rates exceeding 10% despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year. This consensus reflects forward-looking trader sentiment backed by real capital, anchored in the Focus poll's end-2026 Selic projection near 12.4% and expectations of disinflation convergence to the 3% target midpoint. Hawkish risks from energy shocks or the latest Focus upward revision to 4.71% 2026 IPCA could prompt a pause, though current positioning assumes steady 25 basis point trimming.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$268,457Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 95.7% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April 29 Copom meeting, driven by the committee's March 18 initiation of an easing cycle with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first since May 2024—amid still-elevated real rates exceeding 10% despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year. This consensus reflects forward-looking trader sentiment backed by real capital, anchored in the Focus poll's end-2026 Selic projection near 12.4% and expectations of disinflation convergence to the 3% target midpoint. Hawkish risks from energy shocks or the latest Focus upward revision to 4.71% 2026 IPCA could prompt a pause, though current positioning assumes steady 25 basis point trimming.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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