Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 2026 Copom meeting, following the committee's cautious 25 basis-point cut to 14.75% in March—the first easing move after five holds at 15.00%. This reflects weakening economic activity signals, including slowing GDP growth to 2.3% in 2025, outweighing March IPCA inflation acceleration to 4.14% year-over-year from fuel and food shocks. The central bank's Focus survey shows 2026 inflation expectations at 4.36%, above the 3% target midpoint, yet end-year Selic forecasts at around 12.13%, supporting further monetary loosening. Key catalysts ahead include April IPCA data and May activity releases, with low odds for hikes amid disinflationary pressures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisione della Banca del Brasile a giugno?
Decisione della Banca del Brasile a giugno?
Riduzione 80%
Nessuna variazione 12%
Aumento 2.3%
$20,432 Vol.
$20,432 Vol.
Aumento
2%
Nessuna variazione
12%
Riduzione
82%
Riduzione 80%
Nessuna variazione 12%
Aumento 2.3%
$20,432 Vol.
$20,432 Vol.
Aumento
2%
Nessuna variazione
12%
Riduzione
82%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's June 2026 Copom meeting, following the committee's cautious 25 basis-point cut to 14.75% in March—the first easing move after five holds at 15.00%. This reflects weakening economic activity signals, including slowing GDP growth to 2.3% in 2025, outweighing March IPCA inflation acceleration to 4.14% year-over-year from fuel and food shocks. The central bank's Focus survey shows 2026 inflation expectations at 4.36%, above the 3% target midpoint, yet end-year Selic forecasts at around 12.13%, supporting further monetary loosening. Key catalysts ahead include April IPCA data and May activity releases, with low odds for hikes amid disinflationary pressures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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