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Economy·PIL

Crescita del PIL cinese (A/A) nel primo trimestre del 2026?

Market icon
Economy·PIL

Crescita del PIL cinese (A/A) nel primo trimestre del 2026?

apr 17

apr 17

5,0-5,5% 100.0%

<3,5% <1%

3,5-4,0% <1%

4,0-4,5% <1%

Polymarket

$533,075 Vol.

5,0-5,5% 100.0%

<3,5% <1%

3,5-4,0% <1%

4,0-4,5% <1%

Polymarket

$533,075 Vol.

<3,5%

$41,663 Vol.

<1%

3,5-4,0%

$81,173 Vol.

<1%

4,0-4,5%

$85,099 Vol.

<1%

4,5-5,0%

$77,737 Vol.

<1%

5,0-5,5%

$87,662 Vol.

100%

5,5-6,0%

$120,647 Vol.

<1%

6,0%+

$39,096 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlPolymarket traders have locked in 100% implied probability on China Q1 2026 GDP growth (y/y) falling in the 5.0-5.5% bin following the National Bureau of Statistics' April 16 release confirming exactly 5.0% expansion, accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5% and surpassing consensus forecasts of 4.8%. This trader consensus, backed by substantial capital, reflects robust export momentum—up 11.9% y/y with a record trade surplus—offsetting property sector weakness and supporting resilient retail sales and fixed-asset investment. While official data cements positioning, rare methodological revisions or data discrepancies could theoretically challenge it ahead of Q2 release in July. Full-year growth expectations hover around 4.6%, pressured by global trade tensions.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$533,075
Data di fine
17 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

Esito proposto: No

Nessuna contestazione

Esito finale: No

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlPolymarket traders have locked in 100% implied probability on China Q1 2026 GDP growth (y/y) falling in the 5.0-5.5% bin following the National Bureau of Statistics' April 16 release confirming exactly 5.0% expansion, accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5% and surpassing consensus forecasts of 4.8%. This trader consensus, backed by substantial capital, reflects robust export momentum—up 11.9% y/y with a record trade surplus—offsetting property sector weakness and supporting resilient retail sales and fixed-asset investment. While official data cements positioning, rare methodological revisions or data discrepancies could theoretically challenge it ahead of Q2 release in July. Full-year growth expectations hover around 4.6%, pressured by global trade tensions.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$533,075
Data di fine
17 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

Esito proposto: No

Nessuna contestazione

Esito finale: No

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Crescita del PIL cinese (A/A) nel primo trimestre del 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "5,0-5,5%" a 100%, seguito da "<3,5%" a 0%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 100¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Crescita del PIL cinese (A/A) nel primo trimestre del 2026?" ha generato $533.1K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Jan 22, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Crescita del PIL cinese (A/A) nel primo trimestre del 2026?", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Crescita del PIL cinese (A/A) nel primo trimestre del 2026?" è "5,0-5,5%" a 100%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "<3,5%" a 0%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Crescita del PIL cinese (A/A) nel primo trimestre del 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.